Is Ohio in play?
Thomas Suddes is a former parliamentary reporter for the Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University. [email protected]
Here and there, in the nooks and crannies of political coverage, there are theories that, given Kamala Harris’ progress and Donald Trump’s stumbles, the Democrats’ Harris-Walz ticket could win Ohio in November – maybe, just maybe.
That is more than unlikely, even considering the fierce criticism that Ohio native and Trump’s vice presidential candidate, Republican Senator JD (James David) Vance of Cincinnati, is attracting.
It is true that Harris, Joe Biden’s vice president, and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, have generated tremendous enthusiasm among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents across the country who were deeply fearful that Biden’s proven weaknesses could lead Trump back to the White House.
But now national opinion polls indicate that – at least at the time of the poll – the Harris-Walz ticket is in fierce competition with the Trump-Vance ticket and in some cases is even ahead of it.
JD Vance has nerve. The childless female cats I know place more value on their children.
Does history teach us anything about Harris’ chances in Ohio?
The key word is “right now.”
There are still a good 80 days until the election on November 5. And the Democratic Party Convention, which begins tomorrow in Chicago, could just as easily highlight the divisions among the Democrats – for example over the Israeli-Palestinian war – as it could highlight the party’s unity behind Harris and Walz’s team.
(It may be telling, by the way, that Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat from Cleveland who is facing re-election challenge this year from Republican Bernie Moreno, a Cleveland-area businessman, will not be attending the Democratic convention.)
Since the end of World War II in 1945, Democratic presidential candidates have won in Ohio in 1948, 1964, 1976, 1992, 1996, 2008 and 2012: Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and, twice each, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
Given the unique nature of this campaign year and the likely close national outcome in November, a victory for the Democratic Harris-Walz team in Ohio – although again unlikely – would almost certainly be as close as Harry Truman’s victories in Ohio in 1948 and Jimmy Carter’s victory in 1976.
In 1948, Truman – who sometimes seems like the last authentic human being to ever serve as president – won Ohio by just 7,100 votes, defeating Republican presidential candidate Thomas E. Dewey.
Truman won a number of counties in the Appalachian Mountains and Ohio’s Corn Belt, as well as Butler County in suburban Cincinnati, the home county of JD Vance.
Today, Butler is so far to the right that one of his senators, Republican George F. Lang of West Chester, drew worldwide attention at a Vance rally last month when he said, “I fear that if we lose this election” – the Trump-Vance campaign – “it will take a civil war to save the country.” After drawing sharp criticism, Lang said he regretted his comments. In any case, the Harris-Walz team will never do what Harry Truman did: win Butler County.
My Republican Party no longer exists. America will follow under Trump. Ohio is dismantling the truth.
In his victory in Ohio in 1976, Carter won the state by just over 11,000 votes over Republican Gerald R. Ford. This was due in large part to his ability to win counties in the Appalachian Mountains that Democrats had rarely won before.
Then-Ohio House Speaker Vernal G. Riffe, a Democrat from Scioto County, later said he left the 1976 Democratic convention in good spirits because he believed Carter, the party’s nominee, would draw votes because of his Southern and Baptist background in parts of Ohio where Democratic presidential candidates had rarely won an election before.
Riffe was right: Democrat Carter (and his running mate Walter Mondale) won several Appalachian counties in Ohio, securing victory in Ohio.
Carter’s margin in some of these counties in 1976 was about 12,700 votes, or 115% of his statewide margin (about 11,000 votes), and he won the state.
How CAN Kamala Harris steal Ohio from Trump?
But let’s now look at Donald Trump’s vote share in the 2020 presidential election in the pro-Carter counties of Appalachia: Perry 74%; Hocking 70%; Vinton 77%; Meigs and Jackson each 76%; Pike 74%; Lawrence 53%; Brown 54%; Adams 51% and Scioto 71%.
Is something like this likely to happen in Ohio in 2024? The answer is obvious.
Therefore, the main goal of the Democrats in Ohio – to have any chance of defeating Trump and Vance – should be to increase voter turnout among Ohio’s black population (which Harris’ candidacy will likely help to achieve) and in suburban communities.
Otherwise, Ohio will be in November what it appears to be today, albeit with less enthusiasm than in 2020: Trump Country.
Thomas Suddes is a former parliamentary reporter for the Plain Dealer in Cleveland and writes from Ohio University. [email protected]
