US and European airlines cancel flights to China as they struggle with Russian airspace closure

Summary

• Airlines based in Europe and the US see limited growth opportunities for flights to China.
• The reason for this is largely because these airlines were affected by the closure of airspace over Russia, while their Chinese counterparts remained unaffected.
• As a result, China-based airlines have overtaken European and US companies in resuming flights to/from China.

In recent years, tensions and geopolitical divides between Europe and the United States and Russia and its close ally China have also influenced aviation in different ways.

Quite apart from the problems with the aircraft, including assets of Western lessors stuck in Russia, one problem affecting airlines on the western side of the geopolitical bloc is that they no longer had access to Russian airspace following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Since then, Western allies have banned Russian airlines from flying into their airspace, and the Russians have promptly returned the favor.

As a result, European and US airlines have largely avoided adding flights to China and Hong Kong, while airlines based in these regions outpaced the growth of their Western counterparts, adding more frequencies in 2024 compared to the previous year.

Uneven growth

According to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium, 15 European and US-based airlines (excluding Russian carriers) have scheduled 234 weekly flights to China and Hong Kong in August.

In comparison, these airlines had 173 weekly flights to China and Hong Kong in August 2023, representing a year-on-year flight growth of 35.3%.

However, only three airlines added more than ten flights to their networks to China and Hong Kong compared to the previous year.

This included United Airlines (19 additional weekly departures), Lufthansa (17 additional weekly departures) and Delta Air Lines (ten additional weekly departures).

At the same time, a comparison of the data from the same month in 2019 painted a bleak picture: for Western airlines, the Chinese market was still only half the size in 2024.

In a request filed in February, American Airlines asked the Department of Transportation (DOT) for an extension of the exemption granted in March 2020 and extended several times in recent years to operate its 14 weekly flights from the United States to China.

While American Airlines While praising the DOT’s efforts to restore frequencies between the two countries, the airline said the majority of pre-pandemic frequencies remained inactive “and this will likely remain the case at least through the 2024 summer season, as passenger demand between the US and China has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.”

Delta Air Lines requested an extension of this exemption, agreed with American and initially praised the U.S. Department of Transportation.

“However, due to ongoing aeropolitical challenges, it is unlikely that additional frequencies can be fully approved in the upcoming IATA summer season. Given the challenges associated with restoring service between the US and China, further extensions of the rest periods may be necessary in the future.”

Growth of Chinese airlines

Meanwhile, airlines based in China, including those from Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific have continued to expand their European and US networks seemingly unabated. Compared to the previous year, a total of 13 airlines based in China and Hong Kong added 257 weekly flights in August.

Of the 13 Air China China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Juneyao Air, Sichuan Airlines and Xiamen Airlines added ten or more weekly flights to Europe and the United States in August compared to a year ago.

Nevertheless, the capacities of Chinese airlines on flights to Europe and the USA, similar to those of Western airlines, were relatively far below those of 2019.

Diversion and avoidance of Russian airspace

At the same time, the US Department of Transportation has only approved new frequencies if Chinese airlines avoid using Russian airspace.

For example, on March 15, the U.S. Department of Transportation filed a document showing that certain Chinese airlines had been permitted to expand their routes between the U.S. and China by 15 additional weekly flights.

The application included Air China’s approval for flight CA981/CA982 from Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) to John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) .

Instead of flying the airline’s usual great circle route, which sees its planes fly north through Russia and then south toward JFK, Air China has operated the flight by first crossing the Pacific Ocean, then climbing into Alaska and flying over Canada before landing at JFK.

Below we compare the regular route that Air China used for its PEK-JFK flights before the pandemic with the route the airline recently took for the same route.

However, these rules do not apply to Chinese airlines’ flights to Europe (including the United Kingdom).

Last British Airways announced that the airline will suspend its flights from London Heathrow Airport (LHR) to Beijing Daxing International Airport (PKX) from October.

Although the airline did not specify the reason for the one-year hiatus – the route is scheduled to resume in November 2025 – it has been shown that Chinese airlines have an advantage over their European competitors when flying to China.

Cirium data showed that British Airways’ block time was 690 minutes, while China Southern Airlines which competed against the British airline on this route, had registered a block time of 605 or 610 minutes, the former applying to the Sunday flight schedule.

Lufthansa which has the most weekly connections to China of all European and US airlines that fly to the country, admitted that its revenues on its Asia routes were weaker than expected in the first half of the year.

In addition, the group stressed that escalating geopolitical conflicts, including in the Middle East, could further worsen their financial situation, which could increase the indirect impact of rising fuel prices, falling travel demand and “additional fuel costs due to airspace closures and stricter safety requirements.”