It is Lam’s first trip abroad since he was appointed general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the country’s highest post, succeeding longtime party leader Nguyen Phu Trong, who died on July 19.
Cheng Hanping, a senior research fellow at Nanjing University’s Collaborative Innovation Centre of South China Sea Studies, said Lam’s visit was likely to highlight the “ballast” role of relations between the two ruling Communist parties.
“No matter how the world changes or what contradictions there are between China and Vietnam, the relationship between the two parties in China and Vietnam is a ballast and unshakable,” said Cheng.
Lam’s trip comes after weeks of tensions and clashes between Hanoi and Beijing over overlapping claims in the South China Sea. Vietnam is also moving ever closer to the United States and its allies – including Australia, the Philippines and Japan – in what is widely seen as an attempt to provoke China’s ire.
By making Beijing his primary target, Lam is also following in the footsteps of his predecessor. During his 13 years as party leader, Trong maintained regular exchanges at the highest level with the Chinese leadership.
A week after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October 2022, Trong arrived in Beijing on his first overseas trip since beginning his third consecutive term.
The visit also made Trong the first foreign head of state to personally meet and congratulate Xi after his confirmation of his historic third term as China’s party leader.
Xi paid a return visit to Hanoi in December 2023, during which both sides agreed to enhance cooperation and build a community with a “shared future.”
According to Cheng, during Lam’s visit, both sides will seek to further enhance their economic compatibility and inter-party solidarity to strengthen bilateral relations.
“There is a need (for both sides) to deal together with the ‘peaceful evolution’ and the ‘color revolutions’ of the outside world,” he said.
Experts agreed that after a period of turbulence in Vietnam’s leadership, Lam wants to strengthen his economy through closer cooperation with China and thus consolidate his political position at home.
According to observers, Lam’s goals would include increasing Chinese investment and trade volume, as well as strengthening ties with the digital economy and cooperation on various supply chain issues.
Hanoi is also seeking Chinese investment and technological support to advance its national and cross-border railway projects.
Cross-border rail service would not only strengthen Vietnam’s connectivity with China, it would also integrate the Southeast Asian country into the China-Europe Railway Express, a network of freight services connecting various European countries, Cheng said.
06:32
Ten years after China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Ten years after China’s Belt and Road Initiative
China has long been Vietnam’s largest trading partner and one of its most important foreign investors, while Vietnam is China’s largest trading partner in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the fourth largest in the world.
Zhou Chao, a researcher at the Beijing-based independent think tank Anbound, said Lam may also be hoping for an increase in Chinese imports of Vietnamese fruits as well as stable electricity exports from China.
The latter would help Hanoi overcome a power shortage that affects local companies and foreign manufacturers, particularly in northern Vietnam.
“Intensified economic and trade relations undoubtedly signal a strengthening and optimization of bilateral relations,” Zhou said, but added that the relationship between the two neighbors also has limits.
Since taking office as president in May, Lam has repeatedly stressed to Chinese politicians visiting Hanoi that relations with Beijing are a “top priority” – most recently during a visit by China’s fourth-highest official, Wang Huning, on July 25.
Wang, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, was in Hanoi as Xi Jinping’s special envoy for Trong’s funeral.
After ascending to the top of the party, Lam declared at a press conference that there would be no changes in foreign policy, raising expectations that he would continue to maintain a balance between Vietnam’s relations with China and the United States.
Zhou stressed that there were no signs of Hanoi’s stance softening over the territorial dispute with Beijing, adding that he expected Lam to remain tough on the issue.
“As for the South China Sea, Vietnam will not change its stance. However, the country will try to improve communication with China or demand that both sides limit their activities in the disputed areas,” he said.
Zhou said Vietnam’s ruling elites may be seeking an external target as they try to consolidate domestic support and address internal challenges such as rampant corruption and economic setbacks.
Given the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War and ongoing tensions in the South China Sea, China would be an “ideal” potential target, he said.
