Mets vs. Mariners, 10:10 ET
Mets vs. Mariners, 10:10 ET
Today, not one but two pitchers on my list of no-wins or no-betting pitchers are on the field. Even though they are playing in different games, I am avoiding them because we are fortunate to have all teams back on the field after yesterday’s off day for most clubs. Those two pitchers, in case you were wondering, are Mitch Keller and Miles Mikolas. I will mention that I won my last bet on Mikolas, but I am not tempting fate. Instead, I will take a game between two playoff contenders as the Mets face the Mariners.
The race for the Wild Card in the National League is perhaps the most interesting race of recent seasons. Last year it was cool because it was the first year. This year it’s even more exciting because almost all but three teams now have a chance at one of the Wild Card spots. The Mets looked like they were going to be one of the three teams that had no chance, but they’ve turned around since mid-June and are the proud owners of the third Wild Card spot if the season were to end today. They have a +41 run differential that also came about during that turnaround. They didn’t do much to improve the club at the trade deadline, but I think they finally played well, the team may have figured it wasn’t worth tinkering with too much. Still, if the team makes the playoffs, I don’t think it matters because I don’t think they have the pitching to advance. Their first starter for the playoffs is probably Jose Quintana, who takes the ball today. Quintana has a 6-7 record with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Both numbers look good overall, and he ranks in the top 50 in the league. Part of the Mets’ success can be attributed to his power — since June 15, he’s pitched 52 innings and allowed 13 earned runs. His most recent start hasn’t been the best of the season — he pitched just five innings and allowed three earned runs on three hits and four walks. The Mariners, with experience against Quintana, have done pretty well against him, going 18-of-60 with 14 RBIs.
April 17, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners starter Bryce Miller (50) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Photo Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports
The Mariners are locked in a bitter battle with the Astros for the division. Today they are technically in second place, but they are also tied with the Astros in the division. While that isn’t the only path to the playoffs, it is probably the most likely. Seattle is four games out of the Wild Card race and still has a few teams to overtake before they can secure the Wild Card spot. But if they have a chance at the Wild Card, the Rangers, 5.5 games back, should still be considered a threat to win the AL West. The Mariners’ biggest problem is the same one I’ve talked about several times before – they aren’t an offensive threat. Even the additions they made at the deadline won’t get them far enough if they make the postseason. The whole thing is sad because their pitching staff has been very good this season. Bryce Miller takes the ball today and brings with him an 8-7 record, a 3.62 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Miller was outstanding in July, going 25 innings and allowing just five earned runs, resulting in a 1.80 ERA. He didn’t look quite as good in his first start in August, allowing four earned runs in 4.1 innings. He doesn’t have much experience with the Mets, as the team has only two batters who have faced him, and they’ve combined to hit 2 for 6.
While I don’t think the Mariners are a team with a lot of offensive power, they don’t often need it with their pitching staff. Miller has been really good overall this season, and even when he gets off to a bad start, he bounces back pretty well. Quintana has been solid this season, but I think the Mariners can hold their own against him in this game. I’d lean toward a win. However, I’m going with an under 8.5 on the game. Both starters have played well over the last few months, and I think we can get a good result here. Go with the under.
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