Student protests in Bangladesh against proposed employment quotas for freedom fighters led to the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina and her exile. The situation remains unstable, but an interim government has been formed under the leadership of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The immediate aim of the interim government will be to restore law and order and peace. Foreign Affairs Advisor to the Bangladesh Interim Government Md Touhid Hossain said, “We want to maintain good relations with everyone. We have to maintain a balance in relations with the major countries.”
The unrest in Bangladesh has put the entire region on alert. This has emerged as a major diplomatic challenge for India and China. Bangladesh under Hasina managed to balance the pressure from China and India. The extension of the Teesta River Project and the Mongla Port Project to India amid sustained pressure from Beijing were examples of her desire for economic growth and Dhaka’s independent foreign policy.
However, Hasina has chosen India as her first safe passage point, which may jeopardize relations between New Delhi and Dhaka. The longer Hasina is in India, the greater the diplomatic challenge for New Delhi. Gayeshwar Roy, a senior politician of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), said: “The BNP believes that Bangladesh and India should work together. The Indian government must understand this spirit and act in its spirit. However, supporting our opponents makes it difficult to maintain this cooperation.”
One must also look at Beijing’s attitude towards the protests and the interim government, as China has large stakes in Bangladesh. Beijing’s investments have been steadily increasing since Dhaka joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Hasina managed to balance Bangladesh’s relations with India and China, but her tenure also saw a sharp increase in Chinese investments.
Hasina in India can give China a very important card to assert its neutrality and gain a foothold with the new government and the BNP. In a statement released after the formation of the interim government, Beijing stressed: “China strictly adheres to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. We respect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bangladesh and the development path independently chosen by the Bangladeshi people. We firmly stand by our policy of good-neighbourliness and friendship with all the people of Bangladesh.” This reiterates Beijing’s long-standing mantra of non-interference and wait-and-watch. Chinese media further quoted the Foreign Ministry as saying: “As a friendly neighbour and comprehensive strategic cooperation partner of Bangladesh, China sincerely hopes that social stability in the country will be restored soon.”
Chinese media articles have openly argued that cooperation with Beijing is beneficial for Dhaka. A Global Times article quotes Lin Minwang, deputy director of the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, as saying, “…maintaining good relations with China, a country that has the ability to interfere in the country’s internal affairs without any intention, is crucial for Bangladesh.” This is a swipe at India’s interference in the situation.
Chinese companies are undertaking construction projects worth $23 billion in Bangladesh. The protests have raised concerns about the safety of people and equipment and highlighted that much is at stake for China’s hopes for peace and stability in Bangladesh.
The Global Times has even suggested that there may be Western influence behind the protests. Beijing is using its media to spread a narrative of Western and Indian involvement, and stresses that Dhaka should welcome Beijing’s neutrality.
Hasina’s presence in India will prove to be a major obstacle to the continued good relations between India and Bangladesh. China is already taking advantage of this to further strengthen its position. This also offers Beijing a great opportunity to further establish itself in the region while New Delhi is struggling.
(Gunjan Singh is an Associate Professor at OP Jindal Global University.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
