The Green Bay Packers surprised both fantasy football managers and Packers fans when they signed former Raiders star running back Josh Jacobs to a four-year, $48 million contract. It was quite a surprise, as just a month earlier, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst had said Jones would “absolutely” return to Green Bay, and they also had to take on $12 million in dead money.
Just one day later, Jones signed a one-year, $7 million deal with one of Green Bay’s biggest rivals, the Vikings. Due to hamstring and knee injuries, Jones, 29, was only able to play in 11 games and total 656 rushing yards and three touchdowns. However, he also played a full season in 2022, rushing for 1,121 yards and catching 59 passes for another 395 yards.
Jacobs, meanwhile, managed 805 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games in a dismal Raiders offense. Much like Jones, however, he was much better in 2022, leading the league with 1,653 rushing yards, including 12 touchdowns, as well as 53 catches for another 400 yards.
Both running backs are coming off disappointing seasons. Both running backs have been fantasy stars throughout their careers. Both fantasy running backs are on new teams. But which running back is the better 2024 fantasy football draft pick?
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Should you draft Aaron Jones or Josh Jacobs as a RB in the PPR fantasy football drafts?
Fantasy Football Outlook for Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones
After a disappointing 2023, it’s easy to forget that Aaron Jones was drafted as the RB10 two years ago. Yes, age is an issue for Jones, but Jones only has to contend with Ty Chandler in the Vikings’ backfield. Chandler’s biggest contributions are usually in the passing game, but Jones can handle a lot of that, too.
The Vikings don’t have an elite offensive line, but they don’t have one of the league’s worst units, either. All five members of the O-line return this season, and Establish the Run offensive line guru Brandon Thorn has them ranked as the league’s No. 14 offensive line player. The quarterback situation is a little concerning, though.
The Vikings selected JJ McCarthy with the No. 10 pick in this year’s draft, and he was widely expected to take over the offense at some point this year. But now it looks like Sam Darnold will be the right guy, and he’ll have more room to play now that McCarthy isn’t breathing down his neck. Normally, in a situation like this, you’d expect defenses to try to cover the box against the run and get Darnold to beat them. But Darnold also has the luxury of his No. 1 target being Justin Jefferson. With Jefferson’s dynamic playmaking skills, defenses will have to stay honest and defend against both the run and the pass.
2024 POSITION LEVELS & DESIGN STRATEGY
RB | WR | TE | D/ST
Jones is also only on a one-year deal, so he will certainly be motivated to play his best all season as he works toward another contract. The biggest factor to worry about is health. The opportunity is there. The all-around skills are there. But will health cooperate?
Fantasy Football Outlook for Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs enters a backfield where, since this article was first published, the Packers placed AJ Dillon on the injured list and drafted MarShawn Lloyd, who was originally the bigger concern. Although he has a similar build, Lloyd showed impressive athleticism and evasiveness at USC last season. But Lloyd suffered a hamstring strain during a preseason game on Aug. 10. This isn’t considered serious considering his status earlier in the season, but he missed valuable reps during training camp and in preseason games. Lloyd has the talent to impact Jacobs’ performance, but it will likely be longer now before he gets the opportunity to showcase his talent.
So in terms of the backfield, Jacobs should take on the role of bellwether that he’s held his entire career. He’s in a promising situation on offense, too. Jordan Love made huge strides last season, and perhaps no team has as many young, promising wide receivers as the Packers. While none of Love’s receivers have carved out a true alpha role, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks can hurt you on any play. They even have two very good tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. There are far too many options for the defense to focus on a single player. This should open up some good running lanes for Jacobs, and this offense should spend a lot of time in the red zone, which is exactly what Jacobs’ fantasy managers hope.
PPR RANKINGS 2024
Top 250 Overall | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Thorn has the Packers four spots behind the Vikings in his offensive line rankings, but notes they would be ranked higher if they were more run-blocking-based. And Jacobs is only entering his 26th season, which is also just one season away from an All-Pro season.
The Verdict: Which Running Back Should You Draft?
When our first PPR rankings came out, Jones and Jacobs were neck and neck, and Jones was actually a nose ahead. But then McCarthy went down. Then Lloyd missed much of the preseason, and we’ve since learned that AJ Dillon was placed on the injured list, ending his season. Things started to change, and while they were still neck and neck, Jacobs was now a nose ahead.
According to FantasyPros’ consensus ADP data, Jacobs is drafted as the RB12 and No. 28 overall, and according to their consensus rankings, Jacobs is the RB15 and No. 46 overall. Meanwhile, Jones is drafted as the RB19 and No. 56 overall, while he is drafted as the RB19 and No. 58 overall.
FANTASY AUCTION VALUES 2024 (PPR & STANDARD)
Total | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
We see a very similar trajectory in our recently updated running back rankings, as Jacobs is now our RB14 (No. 45 overall) while Jones has dropped to RB19 (No. 64 overall). At this point, pretty much everything is in Jacobs’ favor. He’s on a stronger offense, he’s younger, he’s shown higher potential in the past, and the competition behind him has been weakened by Lloyd’s injury. On a recent episode of The Underdog Football Show, Hayden Winks revealed that he has Jacobs as his RB8 and sees a path for him to move even higher. The arrow is pointing upward for Jacobs in Green Bay, so don’t be afraid to add him to your team in fantasy drafts this year, even if you have to snag him before you can get Jones.
