North Texas – Medium Green:
North Texas had a flair for the dramatic in Eric Morris’ first season at the helm. The Mean Green went 5-7, losing by more than eight points only twice and winning by more than eight points only twice, once against an FBS team. “Impossible” losses to FIU and Navy marred an otherwise interesting season that included losses of 7 to Tulane, 3 to Memphis and 8 to UTSA. Those are competitive showings against the top teams in the AAC.
The Dudes of Denton have a new backfield made up of former TCU players to make up for a lot of lost power and hope the transfers help last season’s absolutely terrible defense.
attack
Morris can coach the offense. North Texas had a 1,000-yard runner in Ayo Adeyi and a 1,000-yard receiver in Ja’Mori Maclin. Unfortunately, both are gone, but a new transfer QB takes the place of the departed Chandler Rogers in the person of Chandler Morris, who was a part-time starter for the Horned Frogs for each of the last three seasons and was originally recruited from Oklahoma.
Morris brings a 16/5 TD/INT ratio to this Air Raid offense, and old teammate Zach Evans joins after two seasons at TCU, one at Ole Miss, and an injury-hit stint at Minnesota. He has rushed for just under 2,000 yards in his career, running for 6.9 yards per carry. Morris’ scheme will create new pass-catching options to make up for the loss of Maclin and two others with 400+ yards last season.
defense
But North Texas’ ceiling is defined by defense. The Mean Green allowed 152 points in their five wins last season. In their seven losses, they allowed 293. They held one opponent to under 27 points. This was objectively a bad group. How bad? UNT had 6.53 yards per play on offense, which ranked 17th. They had a negative yards per play differential.
The Mean Greens’ defense allowed 6.56 YPP, which ranked 125th. They were the only defense in the country to allow over 3,000 rushing yards. The next one allowed 2,877. Recoveries were few and far between, with 14 in 12 games, and the 3-3-5 defense had just 18 sacks for 90 yards, the fourth-fewest sack yards in the country. There are a lot of transfers going on now, so we’ll see if there’s any improvement.
outlook
Full throttle, no brakes for the North Texas team makes them hard to predict. If the defense improves even a little bit, the offense should step up and this could be a bowl team. Right now I have 5.36 wins, but I think Morris could build something decent here and the defenses fit the mold now. I think they could easily overperform and be a team I adjust up in my power ratings.
Tip: Over 5.5 wins
