If a week is a long time in politics, then two weeks in an election campaign is an eternity.
A lot has happened since 22 May, when a dishevelled Rishi Sunak launched an election campaign in the pouring rain outside Downing Street.
The decisive fronts are clearly defined: the incumbent Conservatives are pinning their hopes on tax cuts and security, while Labour is focusing on a message of change through stability.
To attract the attention of an uninterested and apathetic public, senior MPs have performed a series of stunts ranging from the unpleasant to the amusing.
Even the perfunctory series of TV debates is underway: Tuesday’s frosty clash between Starmer and Sunak on ITV has concluded, and a contest between the five candidates will hit screens on Friday evening (7).
The only big piece of the puzzle that is still missing is the eagerly awaited manifestos of the parties.
The policy credos will add substance to the confused promises and half-truths that have plagued the campaign so far, and will provide the first opportunity to see the scale of each party’s ambitions as a whole.
They have the potential to make or break a campaign, as in the case of Jeremy Corbyn’s lavish 2019 candidacy, and can deliver exactly the kind of immediate turnaround that a Conservative Party 20 percentage points behind in the polls desperately needs.
When will the Labour manifesto be published?
Labour is expected to publish its manifesto as early as next Thursday (June 13), with rumours suggesting the party has identified a swing seat in the north of England to demonstrate its concern for the Red Wall voters it lost in 2019 with devastating consequences.
According to Politico, around 80 party officials were supposed to sign the content of the law in a so-called “Clause V” meeting.
The rally is planned for today (Friday 7 June) and draconian security measures are expected after Corbyn’s 2017 election manifesto was leaked to the Daily Mirror just days before its official release.
What can we expect from the Labour manifesto?
The short answer is that, if reports are to be believed, there is not much we don’t already know. The strategy is likely to be based on the “Five Missions for Government” that Starmer and his team first set out in March, and its foundation will be the more concrete “First Steps” for change that Sunak announced just before the election.
Key measures already announced include the creation of GB Energy, a state-owned clean energy company that aims to make the UK’s energy mix greener and less dependent on international markets, and the creation of 40,000 new hospital appointments to reduce NHS waiting lists.
Although Labour is regularly accused of being too hesitant in politics, the party apparatchiks will want to keep the situation as stable as possible with their manifesto. A repeat of the politically strong year of 2019 is therefore highly unlikely.
When will the conservative manifesto be published?
The release date of the Conservative manifesto was kept top secret. There was no indication – either through official leaks or formal invitations – as to when the party might have planned to climax its campaign.
However, according to the Institute for Government Research (IfG), the election manifestos of the two major parties are usually published before the last two to three weeks of the election campaign.
Although there is no firm date yet, it is very likely that the release will take place before June 16th.
What will be in the Conservative manifesto?
Unlike Labour, the Tories started with a flood of policy announcements. Since Sunak called for a general election, his party has announced a kind of national service, reduced the number of migrants and strengthened a kind of triple security for pensions.
Despite its aggressive – and arguably dishonest – tirade against Labour’s tax policy, the party has not yet made any major announcements on tax cuts, suggesting that some of this may be held back until the publication of its manifesto.
The Conservatives may consider abolishing social security. In his recent spring budget, Jeremy Hunt expressed his “ambition” to abolish the tax.
However, with questions already raising about the funding of several of its other policies, the blockbuster policy may have to be put on hold.
Will one of the parties adopt City AM’s manifesto for London?
We live in hope.
