Can a political party attract attention when its rival holds a party conference? Yes, but it is not easy

by Stephen J. Farnsworth, University of Mary Washington

Even for former US President Donald Trump, a master at attracting attention, it is almost impossible to host a counter-program during the Democratic Party Convention.

While the members and supporters of one party gather every four years for their biggest party, the other party must regularly endure a week of widespread ignorance, no matter how creative or dramatic their own counterprogramming efforts may be.

But that doesn’t mean opposing parties’ campaigns should go on vacation during convention week. They can and do make their case for the upcoming election while the other party honors its nominees.

But with the attention of all journalists and the public focused on the party congress, these four days of meetings are anything but the optimal time for the opposing party to make its voice heard.

The typically one-sided media attention during party conventions is one reason why political campaigns usually experience a boost of a few percentage points after the conventions. But the influence of party conventions on public opinion used to be much greater, when there was less political polarization.

Conventional recovery

At the beginning of the 1992 Democratic Party Convention, Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton was only one percentage point behind incumbent Republican President George HW Bush. After the convention, Clinton was 29 percentage points ahead.

In 2000, Republican candidate George W. Bush had an 8 percentage point lead over his Democratic rival Al Gore after the Republican Party Convention.

But these recovery phases are often only short-lived.

As I explain in my book Presidential Communication and Character, “even the huge booms of 1992 and 2000 resulted in much closer elections.”

More recently, the only candidate to post a post-convention polling gain of more than 4 percentage points was 2008 Republican candidate John McCain, but he lost to Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

Hardly any opportunities for political attacks

The best an opposing party can hope for during convention week is failure.

The problem is that such debacles are rare at a time when presidential elections are usually short of last-minute drama. The party conventions themselves, designed to minimize controversy, are becoming more and more planned.

It wasn’t always like this.

The turbulent 1968 Democratic National Convention provided Republicans with ample opportunities to draw attention to the chaotic scenes in Chicago—and, by extension, the chaos within the Democratic Party. But that was unnecessary, as the nationally televised images of Chicago riot police using tear gas and batons to quell anti-Vietnam War protesters spoke for themselves.

Even problematic vice presidential picks, such as those of Democrat Tom Eagleton in 1972 and Republican Sarah Palin in 2008, can trigger lasting partisan reactions, as was the case among Democrats after Trump nominated U.S. Senator J.D. Vance from Ohio as his running mate.

These partisan attacks typically intensify in the days and weeks following the convention, especially if the vice president struggles to gain traction on the national stage.

Trump’s playbook

In the days leading up to the Democratic convention, Republican officials highlighted the Democratic divide over Israel’s war in Gaza. GOP leaders also sought to capitalize on potential discontent over Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the party’s nominee without a primary, a process Trump called a “coup.”

The Trump team has sought to portray Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, as communists or pro-China forces and has falsely claimed that the images of enthusiastic Democratic crowds cheering on the Democratic candidacy were generated by artificial intelligence.

Although some Republicans encouraged Trump to spend less time talking about conspiracies and attacking Harris’ character, Trump has pursued his own strategy. Instead of heeding their advice, Trump has continued his personal attacks against Harris, later calling her father, an economics professor at Stanford University, a “Marxist.”

So far, however, the 2024 Democratic National Convention looks nothing like the 1968 one. The relatively small number of protesters inside and outside the convention hall has not given the Republican counter-programming team much to exploit.

Not easy for the Democrats either

The Democrats’ efforts to put together a counter-program during the Republican Party convention earlier this summer were also unsuccessful.

The limited media attention Democrats received during the week of Trump’s re-nomination focused almost entirely on whether President Joe Biden would abandon his re-election bid – not the favorite topic of the party’s counter-programmers.

Moreover, Biden’s timing illustrated how difficult it is to shape the narrative at opposition party conventions.

Because Biden announced his withdrawal from the race three days after the end of the Republican convention on July 18, Harris’ campaign launch did not have to compete with news from the Republican convention.

Congresses last less than a week, whereas campaigns last months. Unless there are major failures, this year’s counter-programs – like so many previous congress years – will not be remembered for long.

Stephen J. Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Director of the UMW Center for Leadership and Media Studies, University of Mary Washington

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.