After Kamala Harris finished the Democratic Party Convention with flying colors, she could be brought back down to earth on Friday morning thanks to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
On Thursday, the independent candidate filed paperwork to withdraw his candidacy for the Arizona presidential election, Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes confirmed. The withdrawal came ahead of a press conference on Friday morning – Kennedy has neither confirmed nor denied reports that he plans to end his campaign and endorse Donald Trump.
Pollsters say such a move could mean bad news for Harris.
According to a Wall Street Journal According to a late July poll, voters who supported an independent or third-party candidate — almost all of whom supported Kennedy — had a more negative opinion of Harris than of Trump. The poll also found that a quarter would support Harris if Kennedy and other alternative candidates were not on the ballot, but half would support Trump.
A 1-point lead for Harris became a 2-point deficit without Kennedy in the race, according to the magazineAn analysis of The Washington Post Earlier this month, it also found, based on six polls, that third-party candidates – and Kennedy in particular – are doing more harm to Trump than to Harris.
However, Kennedy’s hypothetical departure may have less impact now than it did earlier this year.
For most of 2024, Kennedy polled at around 10 percent nationally, and did even better in some swing states. Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race last month and replaced Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket, many Democratic-leaning voters who didn’t want to vote for Biden have turned their backs on Kennedy, according to Axios.
Kennedy is currently polling at less than 5 percent and his campaign is a financial disaster. At the end of July, he had only $3.9 million in the bank and was nearly $3.5 million in debt.
His running mate, Nicole Shanahan, fueled speculation that the end was near in a podcast appearance this week. She spoke of “two options” facing the ailing campaign. One option is to stay in the race, which she admitted could help Harris “because we’re taking more votes away from Trump.”
“Or we walk away now, ally ourselves with Donald Trump and explain to our base why we are making this decision,” Shanahan said. The next day, the Kennedy team announced that he would “speak to the nation” on Friday morning to discuss “the current historical moment and his path forward.”
Kennedy will do so from a rally in Phoenix, Arizona – not far from Glendale, where Trump is also holding an event on Friday. In an interview with Fox News on Thursday, Trump said, “It’s possible we’ll meet tomorrow.”
Kennedy – who questions the safety of vaccines – is reportedly seeking a cabinet post in exchange for his support for Trump, who would potentially become health secretary.
For much of the campaign, Trump and Kennedy’s rhetoric about each other made it seem unlikely that they would join forces. The former president has previously said he would choose “Biden” over Kennedy, alternately calling the independent “far more LIBERAL than anyone running as a Democrat” and “Democratic ‘plant material,'” while Kennedy accused Trump accused him of filling his last administration with “swamp creatures” and claimed that Trump had “torpedoed the Constitution.”
When rumors began to swirl that Kennedy would kiss the ring, Trump changed his mind. “He’s a brilliant guy,” Trump said of Kennedy in a CNN interview on Tuesday. “He’s a very smart guy. I’ve known him for a very long time.” He added that he would “certainly” be willing to give Kennedy a job in a new Trump administration.
