The Association of American Publishers’ final revenue estimates for the publishing industry for 2023 are in, showing that revenues declined 0.8% from 2022 to $29.9 billion. This year marks a turn in the AAP’s reporting, as it is the first time the organization is using data analytics firm Industry Insight, Inc. to produce its final estimates. The firm has made some adjustments to previous sales figures, and as a result, revenues have been revised upward for every year since 2019 except 2021.
While the new data represents a larger industry, the general trends remain the same – book publishing is a low-growth business. With the revised numbers, sales increased 6.1% between 2019 and 2023 – a decent performance, but below the general rate of inflation. Looking at 2023 in particular, one notable trend is that sales in dollars fared much better than in units. While dollar sales fell only 0.8%, unit sales fell 5.7% to 3.05 billion units sold – a result that suggests higher net book prices in 2023.
The AAP calculates its average net unit price (ANUP) by dividing unit sales by dollar sales. Its calculation does not represent the average price a consumer pays for a book, but rather the price publishers charge their customers, including booksellers and other book sellers. Using this formula, the report found that ANUP increased an average of 7% across all trade formats in 2023—the largest gain since 2020, when ANUP rose 8.1%. Dollar sales typically outpace unit growth, but the gap between dollar sales and unit sales last year was much wider than in 2022.
The numbers in detail
Among the major categories, total trade segment revenues fell 1.4% to an estimated $18.7 billion in 2023, and trade volumes fell 8.1%. The three other major categories saw minor increases in revenue: higher education revenues rose 1.5% to $3.9 billion, and trade book revenues also rose 1.5% to $1.7 billion. Preschool and elementary education revenues rose 0.3% to $5.2 billion. University press revenues fell 9.8% to about $600 million.
Within the trade, the religious press segment fared best, with sales up 6.7% to $1.46 billion. Adult fiction sales fell 1.0% to $6.19 billion, while adult nonfiction sales rose 2.6% to $6.05 billion. The children’s/young adult nonfiction category had the toughest year, with sales down nearly 18% to $902 million. Overall children’s/young adult book sales fell 5.8% to $4.11 billion.
The report also highlights some notable changes in sales by format in the trade space. Digital audiobook sales increased 18.2%, while e-book sales increased 2%. As predicted by several industry members, digital audio file sales will surpass e-book sales: Last year, digital audio file sales were $2.07 billion, compared to $2.14 billion for e-books. Overall, the two digital formats accounted for 22.5% of trade sales last year, compared to 20.3% in 2022 – an increase largely driven by digital audio files.
Of the two major print formats, hardcover sales rose 5.1% as price increases helped offset a 3% decline in volumes. Paperbacks fell 2.9%, while volumes fell 8%. Mass market paperbacks continued to decline steadily, falling 20.3% to $528 million, representing just 2.8% of trade sales.
In terms of sales by channel, online retail sales rebounded after two years of decline, largely due to Amazon reducing orders as it sold off existing inventory. Sales through online outlets rose 10.7% to $8.47 billion last year, accounting for 45.3% of retail sales, compared to 40.3% in 2022. Despite the improvement in online sales, physical retailers held their ground, with sales increasing 0.4% to $4.20 billion.
Sales through all other channels declined over the year. Sales through intermediaries (primarily wholesalers) fell 11.2% to $4.10 billion and may reflect weaker sales to libraries. Export sales fell 11.6% to just over $1 billion, marking the lowest total sales for this category in at least five years. Direct sales – which include sales to school districts, colleges and other educational institutions – fell nearly 43% to $546 million, down 58% since sales of just under $1.30 billion in 2019.
The impact of inclusive access
This year’s report also offers a glimpse into the impact of inclusive access/equitable access (IA/EA) programs, through which college students can pay for their course materials as part of tuition or other fees, on publisher sales. IA/EA sales in the higher education market grew 24.1% to $1.26 billion in 2023, nearly matching print book sales, which fell 6.5% last year. Non-inclusive access digital sales fell 1.2% but still represented the largest format in higher education, with net sales of $2.13 billion. (Earlier this summer, college publishers and college stores managed to delay a proposed Department of Education rule change that could have severely impacted the growth of IA/EA programs.)
While Industry Insight contributed new analysis to develop the final estimates, the general methodology remained the same: The final numbers are based on revenues from publishers reporting revenues to the AAP’s StatShot program — which totaled $13.6 billion this year — with estimates provided for companies that do not report revenues. Industry Insight estimated the remaining revenues through extrapolation, market modeling and research using sources such as Bowker, Circana BookScan, data from the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Census Bureau, and apparently Publisher:.
