Let’s evaluate my predictions for last season in Illinois

As one of TCR’s self-proclaimed “old hands,” I’ve been making predictions for the Illini football season since 2018. We’ve been through a lot as a fan base over the course of those six years: from AJ Bush to Luke Altmyer, Ricky Smalling to Pat Bryant, and Del’Shawn Phillips to Kennena Odeluga. Unfortunately, there have been some highs in that span, but there have also been many lows.

You don’t have to look very closely at my predictions to see an overarching theme of pessimism. That shouldn’t be surprising considering my Illini fandom largely began in the late Zook years (post-2008) and I lived in CU from that time through the 2017 season. Now that I’ve openly admitted my “glass half empty” bias, let’s see how I’ve fared year after year.

2018

Prediction: 3-9

Actual result: 4-8 (2-7)

Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images

Since I didn’t want to commit myself too much to the whole thing in my first attempt, I covered myself right away in the first line of my prediction: “It wouldn’t shock me if this team went 2-4. The squad is just too young and there are too many question marks for me to say with any certainty that they could win more games.”

The mantra “lots of question marks = impending bad record” will come up pretty regularly here. Sometimes it’s true, and sometimes it really isn’t (more on that later). For 2018, I predicted wins against Kent State, Western Illinois, and at least one conference team or USF. In case you don’t remember, the USF game at Soldier Field was tight until the very end, but the other two wins ultimately came against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Grade: B+

2019

Forecast: 5-7

Actual result: 6-7 (4-5)

Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The 2019 season was actually pretty good. Brandon Peters was ready to play, but fans were dying to see what Isaiah Williams could do at quarterback. I was obviously overcome with emotion, as I revised my prediction from 4-8 to 5-7 at the last minute. This was ultimately a step in the right direction, as the Illini went bowling in 2019 for the first time since 2014.

“My rational viewpoint is three (close) out-of-conference wins and a win between Rutgers, Minnesota and Purdue. But I think we deserve a weird win this year. Something like a win against Nebraska, Iowa or Northwestern if they look ahead a week or are plagued by injuries. Will that be enough for Lovie to keep his job? Time will tell…”

It turned out that a trip to Santa Clara to play in the Redbox Bowl was just enough to keep Lovie another year. Conference wins ultimately came from the No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers (guess I was right about the “weird win”), Purdue Boilermakers, Rutgers and Michigan State, along with non-conference wins over Akron and UConn (but not Eastern Michigan).

Grade: A-

2020

Prediction: 4-6 overall (3-5 regular season), win over West Virginia in the Cheez-It Bowl

Actual result: 2-6 (2-6)

Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

We’ll never really know if Lovie’s last season was a failure due to Covid or if the Illini were headed for a disappointing year even under normal circumstances. The season started with the “Graham Mertz Game” against Wisconsin in “Week 1” and continued to go downhill from there, despite wins against the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Rutgers.

“Aside from the impact of Covid, there are too many question marks on the roster for me to confidently predict a .500 record in a conference-only schedule. Who will provide depth at the running back position? Who will consistently put pressure on opposing quarterbacks? Who will fill in for Blake Jeresaty? Some of those questions will obviously be answered, but in a season with so many uncertainties and a difficult schedule, it’s hard to predict much success.”

There’s that “question mark” issue again. And, in a rare occurrence for me, I actually gave the Illini more credit than they deserved, although I admit we don’t have many obvious answers to these questions. I have no idea where I got the idea that the Illini would end up in the Cheez-It Bowl, but it says something that Illinois didn’t bowl in the year that every team was technically bowl eligible regardless of their record.

Grade: B-

2021

Prediction: 3-9 (1-8)

Actual result: 5-7 (4-5)

Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images

I was, and to some extent still am, quite pessimistic about hiring Bret Bielema as Illinois’ head coach. Before the season began, I publicly stated that I wanted Lance Leipold. I’m sure both Bielema’s hiring and the disappointment of the previous season were factors that led me to overcorrect and predict a particularly dismal 2021 season.

“For 2021, I see Illinois beating UTSA and Charlotte and then maybe pulling away with a conference win over Rutgers. Given the recruiting rate, that could be one of our last wins against the Scarlet Knights for a long time.”

The wins ultimately came against a Scott Frost-coached Nebraska team, Charlotte, the No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (9 OT), No. 20 Minnesota and the Northwestern Wildcats. The Illini ultimately beat four teams I thought they wouldn’t play and lost to two of the three teams I thought they would beat: Barry Lunney’s UTSA Roadrunners and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. In short, my prediction really couldn’t have been more off the mark.

Grade: D

2022

Prediction: 4-8 (3-6)

Actual result: 8-5 (5-4)

Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

I’ll start by saying that this prediction was a complete miscalculation. But I’m going to walk through the process and explain the thought process that led me to my 4-8 prediction. In fact, I had so many questions heading into the 2022 season that for some reason I’ve listed them in bullet points:

• Tommy DeVito is essentially an unproven talent who may not be able to hold his own against Big Ten defenses, assuming he stays healthy all year.

Aged like fine wine. One of the biggest criticisms of DeVito when he played at Syracuse was his injury proneness. He played pretty well when he was on the field with his former team, but his 2022 season was leagues better than any before. I incorrectly expected him to be more of a Wes Lunt/Brandon Peters caliber quarterback if he could stay healthy. He credits Bret Bielema for much of his improvement, and I doubt he would be playing in the NFL now if he had stayed at Syracuse or gone to a G5 school to finish his career.

• Illinois ranks last in the Big Ten in returning production, and every recruiting class since 2019 has finished either last or second to last in the conference.

This is an interesting point that I don’t remember at the start of this season, but it does illustrate well how many transfers the Illini had at key positions in 2022. In addition to DeVito, other transfers included Chase Brown, Zy Crisler, Isaiah Adams, Art Sitkowski and Luke Ford. None of these players would have appeared in last year’s recruiting rankings.

• Illinois is running its third different offensive scheme in as many years.

It turns out that Barry Lunney is better than Rod Smith and Tony Petersen.

• Aside from Isaiah Williams and Casey Washington, Illinois still lacks proven depth at the wide receiver position.

That was before Pat Bryant came along. Williams, Washington and Bryant formed a strong receiver trio along with Tip Reiman as TE and Chase Brown out of the backfield.

• The Illini defense lost long-time key players at virtually every position.

Seth Coleman and Gabe Jacas eventually secured the OLB/EDGE positions. On the interior, Johnny Newton and Keith Randolph emerged and showed such impressive NFL-level talent in 2022 that they became priority targets for player retention for 2023. We knew Devon Witherspoon was good, but had no idea he would be a top-5 draft pick.

• Illinois’ schedule is one of the toughest in the Big Ten, with winnable conference games on the road and tough opponents at home.

I actually continued: “I think we’ll end up beating Chattanooga, Nebraska, Purdue and Northwestern. That includes a likely Week 0 loss to Wyoming, which I expect to be a very ugly game.” Ironically, while Illinois ended up losing to Purdue, they definitely didn’t lose at home to Wyoming.

Grade: F

2023

Prediction: 6-6, qualifies for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix, AZ

Current record: 5-7 (3-6)

Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Oh, so close. Honestly, this team deserves to go bowling, and I’m still bitter that they missed out on that sixth win. Last year, the Illini won games against Toledo and Indiana that they probably should have lost, and lost games against Iowa and Northwestern that they probably should have won.

“I’m pretty sure we can predict between 5 and 7 wins this year, but who will win in the end is pure speculation. Northwestern and FAU are the games that I think are virtually impossible to lose, but other than that, every matchup from Toledo to Penn State and Iowa should at least be competitive.”

The games against Toledo and Iowa were indeed hard-fought, but there was a reason David Braun won the Big Ten COY last year, because he turned Northwestern around in no time. An unusually high number of games last season were thrilling right up until the end. At the risk of getting into Tim Beckman’s territory, the Illini could easily have been 4-8 if they had failed to pull off a Hail Mary pass against Toledo, or 7-5 if they had held off Iowa and Northwestern in the crucial moments late in the game.

Grade: A-

What does all this mean for 2024? To me, it means that you really shouldn’t put too much stock in preseason predictions. Rarely, if ever, do teams win all the games they are statistically predicted to win and lose all the games they are “probably” going to lose. And as I’ve learned, it’s awfully presumptuous to assume that a team can or can’t compete with another team from a preseason perspective.

Sometimes you have enough data to make a pretty accurate prediction, like many of us did last season, but in years where there are a lot of newbies (like this year), you have to realize that you don’t have all the data you need to make a reasonable prediction. Just have fun with it and enjoy the ride.