It probably doesn’t matter who wins the Packers’ kicking battle

All summer I have felt a general sense of apathy towards the kicker battle. This is not because the position is not important. As we saw in the playoffs, it is very very important. But that’s because I don’t see any reasonable options for the team. The Packers took a bad college kicker, as our own Justis Mosqueda noted at the time. Carlson was worth about 20.5 points less than the expectations for eligible kickers in his 2022 season at Auburn.

The methodology is described in that article, but I’ll briefly explain it here: Kicks from different distances carry different expected point values. It’s easier to make a 25-yard field goal than one from 55 yards. So instead of considering pure field goal percentage, we need to consider distance, otherwise we penalize kickers who attempt longer ones and don’t take enough account of chip shot artists.

I did the same calculations as Justis for last NFL season’s draft. There are a few things to note that are different from college. First, the overall base is higher. NFL kickers are pretty good at kicking. I’m less concerned with the overall value than the rankings here. Another big difference is that NFL extra points have some actual distance, namely 33-yard attempts. To account for this, I added all extra points to the 30-39 yard bucket to account for them in a more material way. I’m concerned with kicking “talent,” not just points, when figuring out who the good kickers are.

Below are the results of the 2023 NFL season, with Greg Joseph and Anders Carlson highlighted:

Both Carlson and Joseph were just about qualified as NFL kickers last season. Joseph finished 26th in points added and 29th per attempt. Carlson was worse in both measures, finishing 30th in points added and 32nd per attempt. While Joseph was slightly better when you take his kicking environment into account, he was about as bad. Joseph’s home field was a dome, and he only kicked outside in three games after mid-October, one of them in Denver, a notoriously helpful kicking environment. His performance at Lambeau Field in late October wasn’t pretty, making just 1 of 3 true field goals. So if this study were more rigorous and took into account everyone’s environment, specific distance, and weather, I’m not sure Joseph fares much better here than Carlson.

But that level of specificity isn’t necessary to get the point across here: It probably doesn’t matter who wins the kicker battle. Green Bay will try to overcome its kicker and you’ll be holding your breath all season long.