Football in Oregon is breaking new ground in many ways this year.
First, the Ducks are entering their first season in the superconference that the Big Ten has become in recent years.
More importantly, the Oregon Ducks currently have the third-best odds to win the 2025 College Football Playoff national championship.
While this is not an advertisement for gambling, every national gambling database ranks Oregon’s odds behind national leaders University of Georgia and Ohio State.
The last time their odds were this high was a decade ago, when the Ducks were having their most successful and exciting season ever – 2014. But what does that have to do with the present?
In many ways this is not the case.
This new era of college football seems to benefit Oregon in a special way, as Nike founder and alumnus Phil Knight has promised “unlimited NIL.” The Ducks have the ability to spend their recruiting money on anyone they want, helping them recruit the right players for head coach Dan Lanning’s program.
The transfer portal, which closely resembles NFL free agency each offseason, allowed Oregon to make its vision palatable to those who just want to spend another year or two in college.
Take Jabbar Muhammad, for example. The fifth-year senior played an NFL-worthy season with the Washington Huskies in 2023, but instead of taking his talents to the next level, he decided to increase his draft value by playing for the championship-worthy Ducks.
This is the main difference between the 2014 team and the current team ten years later.
That primary similarity may prove to be the Ducks’ greatest strength in their first Big Ten season: experience.
The majority of Oregon’s starting lineup will be comprised of seniors, reflecting the makeup of Mark Helfrich’s destiny team, led by Oregon’s only Heisman Trophy winner, Marcus Mariota.
Another big similarity between the teams is the style of play. Each team had an attacking line with many options and a tough defense led by the front eight players.
The defense, led by DeForest Buckner and Derrick Malone, closely resembles Lanning’s core of Jeffrey Bassa and Jordan Burch. But football is a team sport, so success is much deeper than the two best players.
That’s where the current defense is different. This year, the Ducks’ defense had to be set up differently to adapt to a new style of play.
To be successful in the Big Ten, Oregon cannot allow as many points as is common in the offensively strong Pac 12.
This offseason, focusing on experience seemed to be the key, so players like safety Peyton Woodyard, defensive lineman Derrick Harmon and Muhammad will be key indicators of Oregon’s success on the field this season.
At the same time, the motto “Never change a winning team” developed on offense. The veterans – like receiver Tez Johnson and offensive tackle Ajani Cornelius – want to build on last year’s successes and help the young players develop.
If they want to advance to the top tier of college football, the Ducks need to find their new Mariota, and that’s where Dillon Gabriel comes in.
Gabriel is currently the clear favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and if the bookmakers are right, the Ducks will win the sport’s most prestigious award for the second time.
If he can achieve Mariota-level numbers – something few in history have accomplished – Oregon will be in great position to advance deep into the College Football Playoffs.
While the differences from the last time the Ducks faced such expectations may seem stark, this team hopes to prove it is the latest incarnation of their past success.
With new players, the same system, and high expectations, the 2024 Oregon Ducks have a golden opportunity to repeat the excitement that Mariota, Buckner, and their team caused exactly 10 years ago.
