Utah, OSU and KSU are the teams to beat in a crowded race

The Big 12 has embraced its place as the Power Four conference with the most depth, with the difference between No. 1 and No. 16 small and the potential for extremely competitive games each week high.

The Hotline generally agrees with this narrative. There are no top-tier programs with top-tier talent in the Big 12. There are no Ohio State or Georgia equivalents. No clear and obvious national title contenders.

However, a differentiated approach must be taken when evaluating the conference race between the 16 teams.

There is a clear difference in the quality of teams between the top and bottom tiers. A handful of teams could win the conference, and a handful could finish last. But the difference is significant. Not every game will be close. Not every week will be filled with upsets.

The hotline had little trouble identifying the teams as contenders, pretenders and underdogs. The difficulty was differentiating the teams within each group.

We don’t vote for ties. We hate voting for ties. But there will be ties.

Oh yes, there will be a draw.

1.Utah: The Hotline has been asked repeatedly how the Utes will adjust to life in the Big 12. We think the question should be reversed: How will the Big 12 adjust to the Utes? They are the team to beat thanks to the combination of coaching skill, top-notch quarterback (Cam Rising) and strong offensive and defensive lines. Assuming the injury rate returns to normal after a hellish barrage last season, Utah is the best bet to represent the conference in the CFP.

2. State of Oklahoma: We considered picking the Cowboys to win the Big 12, and wouldn’t be surprised if they were the last team standing. Coach Mike Gundy has a veteran quarterback (Alan Bowman) and returning starters at every position. But every analysis from the Hotline supercomputer spat out the same conclusion: Utah’s offensive line will dominate the head-to-head matchups in Stillwater and the conference championship.

3. State of Kansas: The Wildcats deserve a lot of respect after winning 19 games over the past two seasons — don’t be surprised if they end up playing for the conference title. Chris Klieman will have to revamp his offense, with second-year quarterback Avery Johnson starring, but KSU’s defense should be one of the best in the Big 12. (The secondary is stellar.) And not for nothing: The road schedule is totally doable.

4.Arizona: After first-year coach Brent Brennan secured the core of his roster—only a few players followed Jedd Fisch to Seattle—the Wildcats catapulted into the top tier of contenders. There’s a lot to like, starting with the elite aerial duo of quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan. But could unprecedented expectations (both internal and external) change the dynamic and create unexpected potholes?

5. Kansas: The Jayhawks were picked fourth in the Big 12’s preseason media poll, which probably pleased coach Lance Leipold. (Let other teams handle the pressure and take the spotlight.) Assuming quarterback Jalon Daniels’ back holds up, KU has more to like than not on the second line. But we wonder how it looks with the front seven, which will face some of the best offensive lines in the conference.

6. State of Iowa: After a regression in 2022, coach Matt Campbell revamped his program last season when the Cyclones went 6-3 in league play. Will that continue or stagnate? They are deep in many of the key position groups, from quarterback to the lines of scrimmage to the defensive backfield. But the November opponent lineup is brutal. We expect a fast start and a slow finish in Ames.

7.Texas-Tech: The Hotline has a slightly more bullish assessment of the Red Raiders than other prognosticators, an assessment based in part on a schedule that doesn’t include Utah, Kansas or Kansas State. That may not seem like much, but an additional win could be the difference between seventh and 10th, or eighth and 12th. Plus, TTU has one of the best pass-catching groups in the conference.

8.West Virginia: The Mountaineers won five of their last six games last season, have starting quarterback Garrett Greene back and have an excellent offensive line. So why this modest forecast? Their non-conference schedule is demanding and could take a heavy toll by the time league play begins, when they face Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona in succession. That will not be remedied until November.

9.UCF: The Knights’ first season in the Big 12 started poorly but ended with three wins in the last month. There’s good reason to believe the momentum continues for coach Gus Malzahn, who has been on the job for four years. If quarterback KJ Jefferson plays to his potential after transferring from Arkansas, UCF could enter the competition.

10. TCU: Sonny Dykes has been a head coach at the Power Five level for six years, four at Cal and two at TCU, and he’s coming off one successful season: the improbable, magical run to the 2022 national championship game. So forgive us for not being willing to give the Horned Frogs, who had one of the toughest conference schedules in the Big 12, a leap of faith. This is a pivotal year for the Dykes regime.

11. Baylor: Coach Dave Aranda has arguably the hottest job in the conference after two disappointing seasons. It’s hard to see a significant change in the Bears’ trajectory even though he has all of his core players at his disposal. Once momentum is lost and dark clouds gather, the negativity tends to linger.

12.Cincinnati: The halcyon days of Luke Fickell, Desmond Ridder and top-25 rankings seem a decade ago for the Bearcats, who recorded a conference win last year during their first Big 12 season. Will 2024 be better? Yes, but only marginally. UC isn’t ready to fight for a top-half spot, let alone transform into a true contender.