After decades in public life as a prosecutor, senator and vice president, Kamala Harris has a long track record that could give her opponents food for thought.
The Trump campaign could focus on her reputation as a liberal senator, her support amid the chaos of the Black Lives Matter protests, or a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
But what could hurt her most is her support for a bail fund credited with securing the release of a man who later committed murder, according to our exclusive poll of likely voters.
It found that 54 percent of voters said this was a problem for them. Although Republicans came out on top on this issue, it was also the most problematic issue for the independent voters who could decide the 2024 election, with a net negative rating of -43 (the difference between those who said it had a positive opinion of them and those who said it was negative).
In contrast, her past support for federal cannabis legalization is viewed positively by likely voters, with about 39 percent giving her a positive rating for it, compared to 27 percent who rated her negatively.
JL Partners tested a range of attack lines on 1,054 likely voters to see which ones resonated and which ones didn’t. It shows how the Trump campaign could best attack Harris
The results come from an online poll of 1,054 likely voters conducted last week by JL Partners.
Nine lines of attack that their opponents had used were tested.
And it shows where Trump could have the greatest influence and where Harris may need to strengthen her defense.
“If the Trump campaign wants to tell people that Harris is too liberal, dangerous or crazy, they need evidence,” said James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners.
“Our poll shows that there are worse things to look at than her decision on the bail fund during her tenure as senator. It is real, relatable and alarming to voters of all races and creeds.”
The Trump campaign has already come under attack for Harris’ soft stance on crime and her outspoken support of the Minnesota Freedom Fund.
It was established in 2016 to pay bail for offenders who cannot afford it.
Harris tweeted her support in 2020 after Minneapolis police killed George Floyd, sparking widespread protests.
“If you can, donate now to the @MNFreedomFund to pay bail for protesters on the ground in Minnesota,” she posted.
In 2022, it was used to release Shawn Tillman, who was being held for gross indecency.
Harris supported the bail fund in 2020 as a means to support protesters
Vice President Kamala Harris at an event in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Friday. She narrowed the gap to Trump in our DailyMail.com poll
Workers erect a mural of Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris outside the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, on August 16, 2024
Donald Trump used Harris’ support of the bail fund to attack her
A few days after his release in May 2022, he murdered a man in St. Paul and is now serving a life sentence.
Republican attacks tended to distort the story, claiming that Harris donated to the fund or that she supported a fund to free “murderers and rapists,” while failing to mention that her support was for BLM protesters.
“One of the dangerous criminals Kamala helped bail out of prison was Shawn Michael Tillman,” Trump himself said during a rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, late last month.
“You know the name. A repeat offender who was released with Harris’ help.”
Another argument that resonated well in our poll was that she was responsible for the “root causes of the border crisis.” (Again, Republicans’ attacks overlooked the fact that President Joe Biden had called on them to address the “root causes” of migration in a limited number of Central American countries.)
And she could be vulnerable because of her past positions on health care. In her 2020 presidential campaign, she pushed a plan that would have eliminated private health insurance and replaced it with a government-funded system.
JL Partners surveyed 1,001 likely voters in a separate poll from August 7-11, using a mix of online, landline, mobile and in-app techniques. The results have a margin of error of +/- 3.1 points and show that Harris has narrowed the gap to Trump.
“Did you do that for Trump?” asked Kevin Munoz of the Harris campaign when asked to respond to the poll.
Attacks on other issues, such as supporting the BLM protests in the summer of 2020 or advocating for a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, are less well received. These issues are supported by 24 percent and 30 percent of respondents, respectively.
“In a political campaign, you have to find the message, but you also have to find evidence to support that message. Without both, the message will not stick with voters,” said pollster Johnson.
“Crooked Hillary” worked because of her emails. Attacks on Trump for his over-the-top drama in 2020 were bolstered by his aggressive debate performance and his record during COVID.
“Romney seemed to have lost touch with reality, not only because Obama kept saying it, but because he had his 47 percent claim as evidence.” (Romney claimed that 47 percent of voters would vote for Obama anyway because they didn’t pay income taxes – a wild claim that ignored the fact that most of those people earned too little to pay taxes, rather than enjoy an extra helping.)
Both sides, Johnson said, must find lines of attack based on solid foundations.
