West Virginia head coach Neal Brown looks on during a summer practice.
MORGANTOWN – If West Virginia wants to make a surprise run to the Big 12 championship this season, which is projected as one of the team’s long-term goals, it will have to do so against perhaps the most difficult conference schedule of any team in the league.
What’s more, the Mountaineers’ busy schedule is almost certainly the toughest any Big 12 team has ever faced, as in addition to their grueling run through the conference, they begin play against No. 9 Penn State on Aug. 31, and two weeks later they must travel to Pitt to take part in the away revival of the Backyard Brawl.
And if you think the Albany Great Danes would have had much rest between those two games, forget it, because they are ranked No. 14 in the preseason FCS Coaches Poll after advancing to the FCS semifinals last season before losing to No. 1 seed South Dakota State.
On the road last year, Albany beat No. 16 Villanova, No. 24 William & Mary and No. 4 Idaho while also playing away in Huntington against Marshall, inflicting a 21-17 loss by the end.
How can we analytically assess the strength of WVU’s Big 12 schedule this season before a game takes place? One way is to use the ESPN Power Ratings before the Big 12 season, where each opponent has their numerical value in the Power Ratings. Adding these together, the team with the “lowest” numerical value has the “toughest” schedule.
Here is ESPN’s Big 12 power rating for 2024 (WVU opponents in italics):
1. Utah, 2. Oklahoma State, 3. Arizona, 4. Kansas State, 5. Iowa State, 6. West Virginia, 7. Kansas, 8. TCU, 9. Texas Tech, 10. UCF, 11. Baylor, 12 . BYU, 13. Houston, 14. Colorado, 15. Cincinnati, 16. ASU.
Look at this closely. WVU isn’t playing the conference’s No. 1 team in Utah, but it’s also not playing the No. 16 team in Arizona State.
The fact is that WVU, ranked No. 6, plays five of the top seven teams in the rankings — missing only itself and Utah. Their schedule includes Nos. 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7.
Additionally, WVU will play seven of the top 10 teams and eight of the top 11 teams in the conference.
This means that of the top 11 teams, only Utah and TCU are missing.
Overall, WVU’s schedule power rating is 66, making it the third-heaviest in the conference behind Colorado at 62 and Arizona State at 63. Houston is also at 66, making those four the only teams under 70.
Here is the league’s strength using this method from hardest to weakest:
Colorado 62; Arizona State 63, West Virginia and Houston 66, Texas Tech 70, TCU 71, Baylor and Iowa State 76, Oklahoma State 81, Utah 83, Cincinnati 85, Kansas and Central Florida 89, Kansas State 90, Arizona 96.
Arizona, which finished third in the preseason coaches poll, has a ridiculously easy conference schedule after a rough start, playing ESPN’s No. 4 Kansas State and No. 1 Utah and then No. 9 Texas Tech.
If the team survives this win, West Virginia will be the only team in the top half of the league they face in their final seven games.
In its final seven games, Arizona will play against WVU as well as numbers 10, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16.
As easy as Arizona’s late-season run is, WVU’s season opener is tough. One thing is for sure: If WVU can hold its own against Penn State, Albany, Pitt, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona in its first eight games, it will gain national attention and respect before finishing with four of the eight worst teams in Cincinnati, Baylor, Central Florida and Texas Tech.
If WVU can win five of its first eight games, a repeat of last year’s 9-4 record seems possible and a 10-win year would be an attainable goal.
Coach Neal Brown is realistic about the situation and knows that sometimes the schedules are harder or easier than they seem.
“The schedule is still to be determined,” Brown said during one of his camp press conferences. “Everyone was complaining about last year’s schedule, and in hindsight, if you remember, we started against Penn State, a top-10 team, played Pitt, which was on a lot of people’s top-25 list, and then Texas Tech came here and they were top-25 in the preseason. “On paper, (this year’s schedule) looks really tough and our league is extremely strong.”
It’s difficult to determine performance ratings for this year’s Big 12 because the differences between teams seem to be razor-thin.
“The talent gap between teams 1 through 16 in our league is not as drastic as in other leagues,” Brown said. “So many games are decided in the fourth quarter. The gaps are small, so we have to be really good situationally.”
