Big 12 Football Predictions for 2024: Utah Leads Wide Field in Race for Realigned Conference

While there are no national championship contenders in the new Big 12, it could be extremely competitive. That starts with the impressive group of coaches, including three who made my top 10 in the country this spring — Kansas’ Lance Leipold, Utah’s Kyle Whittingham and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy. Kansas State’s Chris Klieman, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and new Houston coach Willie Fritz also made my list.

I could see any of the six teams — Utah, Kansas State, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas or Iowa State — winning the division this season without much of a gap between them. (And West Virginia and UCF aren’t far behind.) But as I dug deeper into the rosters and schedules this week, I realized one team stands out from the rest.

Some thoughts on the top contenders

Utah: Whittingham’s program is primed to compete for Big 12 titles, including the return of two-time Pac-12 champion quarterback Cam Rising, who sat out all of last season. The defense was solid last year despite many injuries and returns eight starters. One concern: Will a standout running back emerge?

State of Kansas: Klieman’s team will run like crazy with star quarterback Avery Johnson and the backfield duo of DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards. That is, if the offensive line successfully restructures after losing four starters. The defense should be able to pressure the passer, but needs to improve in the running game.

Arizona: You can never predict how a coaching change will go, but Brent Brennan has landed himself in a nice situation. Star quarterback Noah Fifita and All-America receiver Tetairoa McMillan return from a 10-win team. The defense, led by linebacker Jacob Manu, could be secretly good. There’s just one problem: The team’s games against Utah and K-State are on the road.

State of Oklahoma: There is no better continuity than with the Cowboys. They return their two coordinators and 20 starters, including Doak Walker winner Ollie Gordon II, quarterback Alan Bowman and the entire offensive line. But the Cowboys’ defense remains questionable, and unfortunately, they have played both Utah and K-State.

Kansas: Yes, the Jayhawks can win the Big 12, assuming quarterback Jalon Daniels stays healthy. Leipold’s offense is loaded with playmakers like running backs Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. and receivers Lawrence Arnold, Quentin Skinner and Luke Grimm. The defense needs to become more disruptive to take the next step.

State of Iowa: On paper, this should be Campbell’s best team since the Brock Purdy era. Quarterback Rocco Becht was the Big 12 Freshman of the Year, running back Abu Sama III burst onto the scene late last season, and the defense is brimming with experience. But the schedule looks to be the toughest of my top six teams.

West Virginia: Neal Brown was one of the few coaches to fight his way out of the firing line, going from 5-7 to 9-4. Quarterback Garrett Greene and running back CJ Donaldson should benefit from an experienced offensive line and the defense has gained some nice reinforcements. But it’s tight at the top of the league and the Mountaineers could be pushed out.

UCF: UCF was the only one of last year’s four new programs to reach a bowl game, winning three of its last four games, most notably a 45-3 victory over 10-win Oklahoma State. And that was before signing veteran quarterback KJ Jefferson from Arkansas. While I predicted a modest two-win improvement in conference play, the ceiling could be higher.

Thoughts on other new schools

State of Arizona: Kenny Dillingham had a tough time rebuilding last season. The Sun Devils finished 3-9 but lost several close games, shut down Michael Penix Jr., and beat UCLA (by a big score). However, ASU will need at least another year to develop a quarterback and build experience on defense.

Colorado: We know Deion Sanders has a quarterback, son Shedeur, a high-caliber two-way playmaker in the first round in Travis Hunter and a proven tailback in Dallan Hayden (from Ohio State). But the Buffs went through a significant turnover of personnel (five new assistants, including defensive coordinator Robert Livingston), and the offensive line will again be a big question mark.

(Photos of Avery Johnson, left, and Cam Rising: Julio Aguilar, David Becker / Getty Images)