Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cruel summer ends with his departure

It was a cruel summer for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

A series of scandals involving the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Kishida’s closest allies within the party, and even his family put his job at risk.

The fact that this happened while the cost of living was skyrocketing and discontent was simmering within the LDP did not exactly help the embattled party leader.

His approval ratings fell to a record low. At the same time, however, another test was looming: the race for the party chairmanship, which was scheduled for September.

Some observers said he would fight for another term, but that was not particularly surprising. when he announced that he is dropping out of the race for party chairmanship – which also means that he will not be prime minister in September, when the LDP elects a new leader.

His diplomatic successes – an ambitious budget to expand the military, closer relations with the United States and a historic détente with South Korea – could not save him.

“The obvious first step to show that the LDP will change is for me to resign,” the 67-year-old said in his usual unflappable manner to a room full of reporters on Wednesday.

Apart from his words, everything about him suggested that everything was going on as usual.

In 2021, a political veteran, Fumio Kishida, took over the top job. His predecessor, Yoshihide Suga, resigned after just one year in office after Japan recorded dismal approval ratings during one of its worst Covid waves.

A month after taking office as prime minister, Mr Kishida led the LDP into the parliamentary elections and headed a winning coalition.

Those who know him well – and have worked with him – tell the BBC he is a decent and intelligent man and a fairly conservative politician. Others say he is a clever strategist who should not be written off so easily.

Mr. Kishida’s mild-mannered style belies the fact that he can also be unpredictable and stubborn. Take, for example, his risky but sudden decision to dissolve his own faction in the party, which led to the dissolution of other factions – these cliques, as old as the party itself, are a major source of patrons and money.

For months, observers had called his position untenable, in part because of the indecisiveness with which he handled the controversies surrounding him. He held on even as rebellion grew within the LDP. But the writing was on the wall.

“People are so tired now,” said Hiromi Murakami, a political science professor at Japan’s Temple University, weeks before Mr. Kishida decided to resign. “People are piling up. It’s not just about the donations scandal.”

The LDP was mired in controversy earlier this year. In December, four cabinet ministers, including key allies of the prime minister, and several state secretaries resigned after allegations that the LDP leadership was pocketing millions of dollars from party coffers.

An investigation by the prosecutor’s office revealed further details, and the LDP eventually stated that 85 of its members had not properly declared their income.

This was just the latest in a series of controversies that had overshadowed his time in office: the previous year, he had fired his son, who was employed as his senior secretary, after it emerged that he had abused his position to throw a party at the Prime Minister’s residence.

And the LDP was already rocked by headlines about its ties to the controversial Unification Church, which was linked to the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

As 2024 dragged on, scandals became more frequent. And new ones emerged.

In April, the LDP lost two seats in a by-election when party lawmakers resigned – one accused of vote-buying and the other implicated in fundraising investigations.

Then in July, the Defense Department was rocked by allegations that it had mishandled confidential and sensitive information, bullied subordinates, and committed fraud. A series of disciplinary actions, suspensions, and even dismissals followed.

At that time, the LDP’s approval ratings had reached a low point: according to a poll by the daily newspaper Asahi Shimbun, they were at 19 percent, the lowest since 2000.

Mr Kishida vowed to tackle the crisis head-on, but the way he handled it was also criticized.

There was a rare appearance before the Political Ethics Committee, but he seemed uncertain and was reluctant to say much.

In June, his coalition pushed through campaign finance reforms, but these were met with public scepticism. “Even though they spent so much time on it, nothing came of it. It was too late, he should have done something sooner,” said Professor Murakami.

He also tried to appease angry voters in June and mitigate the effects of inflation with a temporary tax relief program, but that didn’t seem to go far enough for people.

“It was constantly tense… I had to deal with many problems at home and abroad,” said Mr. Kishida, assessing his time in office at the end of June, when he reached the 1,000-day mark.

In June, there were also rumours of “post-Kishida” candidates – loud enough to make it into the national media – as disgruntled party colleagues feared having an unpopular politician on the prime ministerial list ahead of next year’s general election.

“(They) think if he’s at the helm they’re going to sink. They’re panicking,” Jeff Kingston, a professor of Asian studies and history at Temple University, told the BBC at the time.

Although there have been several corruption scandals before, the latest scandal came at a painful time.

“The economic situation has affected people’s mindsets,” said Prof. Murakami. “People have suffered so much from the (Covid) crisis. They can barely pay their bills. But now they see politicians who have vast amounts of money that they will not pay taxes on” – a reference to the LDP’s admission that some lawmakers had under-reported their income.

While his popularity at home was declining rapidly, Mr Kishida had done well on the international stage. Before becoming prime minister, he was Japan’s longest-serving foreign minister. As prime minister, he hosted the G7 summit last year, visited Ukraine and eased relations with South Korea, a key ally against China and North Korea.

Relations with Washington are as strong as ever. At the invitation of President Biden, he gave a speech to Congress earlier this year – and received a standing ovation.

“Thank you,” he said to his audience. “I have never received such beautiful applause from the Japanese parliament.”

In Japan, the media sharply criticized the visit. One headline read: “Kishida should not misuse the summit as a tool for domestic politics.”

If that was the aim, he failed. Mr Kishida was overwhelmed by the battles on so many fronts – and his party and voters ran out of patience.

“People vote on the basis of money,” said Professor Kingston. “It’s great that he’s strutting around NATO, the EU… and the United States. Ultimately, I want to see more pay in my wallet.”

Mr Kishida said the LDP needed a fresh start – and had to convince the Japanese people that it could change.

The opposition is still too weak and too divided to be a real alternative. But there is also great mistrust within the governing party.

Can a new face at the top unite the Liberal Democratic Party and improve its damaged image? September will show.