The path of Hurricane Ernesto runs east of Massachusetts, but large waves and currents are possible along the coast

BOSTON- Ernesto It will become a hurricane on Wednesday, and in a few days, coastal Massachusetts will feel some of the storm’s effects.

Path of Hurricane Ernesto

The newest National Hurricane Center Forecast route continues to indicate a northward track, strengthening Ernesto to a Category 3 major hurricane by Friday morning.

The center of Ernesto is expected to pass very close to the west of Bermuda early Saturday morning as a Category 2 hurricane. If that path does occur, the island could experience some of Ernesto’s strongest winds on the eastern eyewall.

Ocean water temperatures remain very warm and well above average for this time of year. Surface temperatures will be well above 25 degrees Celsius throughout Ernesto’s journey from his current position to Bermuda, hence the forecast intensification.

Ernesto will face adverse conditions at times over the next few days, primarily due to wind shear. It is expected to move through an area of ​​moderate shear in the 24 hours before reaching Bermuda, reflected in the NHC’s slight downgrade from Category 3 to Category 2 later Friday.

Once Ernesto passes Bermuda, it could drift a little to the west again, undoubtedly causing a bit of a scare in the northeast.

Ernesto Spaghetti Models

However, almost all of our models agree that Ernesto will pass at least 300 miles east of us and possibly as much as 500 to 700 miles offshore from Sunday into Monday.

In this area, we do not expect any rain or wind impacts directly related to Ernesto in New England.

There will be some impacts on our coast. The Atlantic will be very rough as Ernesto approaches and eventually passes.

We could easily see 5- to 10-foot waves on many of our beaches this weekend into early next week, especially over the islands and outer Cape Cod.

Waves of 10-20 feet can occur just offshore.

We expect there to be numerous rip current and backwash warnings in place starting Friday or Saturday and lasting several days.

Finally, a reminder: Hurricane season is just getting started. The bulk of the action is likely still to come. Tropical activity typically peaks from late August to mid-October.