Texas and Oklahoma may no longer be members of the Big 12, but that won’t stop us from experiencing the excitement the conference will bring this fall. According to my college football projection model, the Big 12 has the most teams (10) with at least a 2.5 percent chance of winning their conference title among the Power Four. There are no teams there with a chance above 26 percent, either. This smells like chaos.
If chaos isn’t your thing, I’m sure you’ve had enough of the chaotic nature of conference realignment. Texas and Oklahoma are now in the SEC, but the Big 12 has added new members to make up for the loss. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are coming from the now-defunct Pac-12. Utah will compete with Kansas State as preseason favorites, while Arizona isn’t far behind. Colorado and Coach Prime are looking to bowl, while Arizona State will likely finish at the bottom.
But let’s talk about the futures market. For futures betting, I take my college football projection model – which looks at game data and creates a projection for each team – and simulates the season 100,000 times to see how many games a team is expected to win and how often they win their conference and make the college football playoffs.
My playoff algorithm is based on 10 years of four-team playoffs. Due to conference realignment and the new 12-team playoff structure, there may be more variance this year than in years past. It’s hard to say how much this will mess up the projections, but my algorithm does take into account a certain amount of randomness because of it, and, well, it’s humans who make their selections. There’s no guarantee they see things the way my model sees them.
Big 12 projections
XWINS is the average number of wins a team has achieved in the simulations. CONF is the projected chance of a team winning its conference.
|
TEAM |
XWINS |
CONF |
|---|---|---|
|
9.2 |
24.2% |
|
|
9.0 |
23.9% |
|
|
8.8 |
16.1% |
|
|
7.7 |
6.7% |
|
|
7.5 |
6.4% |
|
|
7.7 |
5.9% |
|
|
7.2 |
4.9% |
|
|
7.2 |
3.9% |
|
|
6.6 |
3.3% |
|
|
7.3 |
2.6% |
|
|
6.0 |
0.5% |
|
|
5.5 |
0.4% |
|
|
5.1 |
0.3% |
|
|
4.1 |
0.0% |
|
|
3.8 |
0.0% |
|
|
3.3 |
0.0% |
The 12 best big bets
Oklahoma State over 8 wins (-130)
Mike Gundy just wins football games. He’s led the Cowboys to eight wins in 13 of the last 16 seasons, and Texas or Oklahoma aren’t on the schedule. They reached the Big 12 title game last year, and I think this team can be even better. Alan Bowman returns at quarterback, and if he can limit his interceptions, this team can easily win by double digits. Sharing the backfield with Bowman is one of the best running backs in the country, Ollie Gordon. My model has them closer to nine, and that’s easily the best price on the market, so I’m not going to miss the pokes here.
Colorado under 5.5 wins (+120)
I’m a fan of Shedeur Sanders and I think there’s a real chance he ends up as the QB2 in next year’s NFL Draft, but you need more than just a quarterback. Colorado should be better than last year and I’m excited to see Travis Hunter play on both sides of the ball, but I’m not sure they’re where they need to be in the trenches yet. Add in the non-conference games against North Dakota State, at Nebraska and at Colorado State and you could be off to a start that’s the exact opposite of the electrifying 3-0 start in September of last year. I’m excited to watch the Buffs this season, but I don’t expect them to make a bowl game.
Houston under 3.5 wins (+135)
I’m a little nervous about losing Willie Fritz in his first year, but I think there might be a little transition for the Cougars this year. They travel to Norman to face an old Big 12 foe in Oklahoma, where they’ll be underdogs by more than three touchdowns. Houston’s winning streak is good, but the schedule is tough and there’s a lot of turnover on the roster. That doesn’t bode well for a successful season.
Future selection
- Kansas State wins the Big 12 (+400) (Risk 0.25 units)
- Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 (+800) (Risk 0.1 units)
(Photo by Cameron Rising: Chris Gardner/Getty Images)
