Despite the hype, the much-vaunted green energy transition away from fossil fuels is not happening. With current policies, a meaningful transition is prohibitively expensive. We need to drastically change the political direction.
Globally, we are already spending nearly $2 trillion a year to achieve an energy transition. Over the past decade, solar and wind power use has risen to record levels. But fossil fuels have not declined: in fact, we have added more fossil fuels over the same period.
Numerous studies show that the use of renewable energy in societies never replaces coal, gas or oil for most of these energies. They only increase energy consumption. Recent research shows that for every six units of new green energy, less than one unit replaces fossil fuels. Analyses in the US show that subsidies for renewable energy only lead to higher overall energy consumption.
In other words, measures to promote green energy lead to more emissions.
None of this should surprise a student of history. During the switch from wood to coal in the 19th century, overall wood use actually increased, even though coal provided a larger share of energy needs. The same thing happened when we switched from coal to oil: by 1970, oil, coal, gas and wood provided more energy than ever before.
Humanity has an insatiable thirst for affordable energy, which is needed for every aspect of modern life. In the last half century, the energy we get from oil and coal has doubled again, hydroelectric power has tripled and gas power has quadrupled, and we have seen an explosion in the use of nuclear, solar and wind energy. The entire world, including the average citizen, has never had so much energy at its disposal.
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The grand plan underlying today’s energy transition essentially assumes that the widespread promotion of heavily subsidized renewable energy sources will magically make fossil fuels disappear.
