For over a century, Johnson County residents voted for Republican presidential candidates.
Even during times of strong Democrats, including Franklin Roosevelt’s landslide victory in 1932 and Lyndon Johnson’s overwhelming triumph in 1964, the district remained true to its Republican identity.
Woodward Wilson was the last Democrat to win Johnson County, accomplishing the feat in 1916.
But in 2020, Joe Biden put an end to this extraordinary run.
Two years later, nearly 60 percent of Johnson County voters supported Governor Kelly’s re-election, and the number of Democratic delegations in the state House of Representatives and Senate increased significantly.
In fact, Democrats now view Johnson County as a crucial battleground in the 2024 election.
So we have reached an important crossroads.
Are the Democratic gains in Johnson County a harbinger of things to come? Or are they just a temporary interruption in an otherwise robust trend of Republican dominance?
The answer lies in demographic changes. Johnson County’s population is increasingly urban, college-educated and affluent – trends that benefit the Democratic Party.
In addition, democratically oriented sectors – education, healthcare and scientific professions – now account for around 40 percent of jobs in the district.
Accordingly, the proportion of voters registered as Democrats in Johnson County has increased from 20 percent in 2000 to 32 percent today.
However, these changes cannot fully explain the changes in voting behavior.
After all, the proportion of voters registered as Republicans in Johnson County remains above 40 percent.
What has changed is the Republican Party. It has failed to field candidates who appeal to moderates and independents.
In the 2018 gubernatorial election, for example, Laura Kelly defeated Kris Kobach by 5 points nationwide.
