With the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams, the Big Ten Conference now expects at least three, if not four, representatives to compete for the national championship. Ohio State and Oregon are the conference’s two favorites, ranked 2nd and 3rd in the AP preseason poll. Penn State and Michigan are the next contenders, ranked 8th and 9th.
If the season goes awry, these four should easily make the CFP, but in college football, seasons are hardly ever awful, at least not completely. There will be teams that shake up the Big Ten Conference this season, and the important thing is to figure out which ones have the potential to cause the most chaos in the conference.
These three teams either have favorable schedules or plenty of chances to pull off an upset. They’re the ones to watch in the Big Ten this year, as they could either take a CFP spot away from one of the four favorites or eliminate them entirely.
Preseason over/under: 5.5. . Michigan State. . 3. . . 486. . Last season: 4-8
When Jonathan Smith left Oregon State to take over in East Lansing, he couldn’t take his starting quarterback with him, but Aidan Chiles, his true freshman backup, followed him. Chiles was a top-10 quarterback in the 2023 recruiting class and was one of the most coveted players in the transfer portal this offseason. If Chiles can break through as a sophomore at Michigan State, the Spartans could be a surprise team in the Big Ten this year.
No, Michigan State won’t be able to survive the hard work it put in over two consecutive weeks with Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Michigan, but maybe Chiles and Smith can beat one of those four teams and put a serious stain on their record.
It will be a few years before Smith has a competitor, but with one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the country, his team could cause plenty of chaos in year one.
Preseason over/under: 4.5. . . Last season: 4-8. 2. . . Purdue. . 492
Purdue keeps the rest of the conference on constant alert. The Boilermakers always seem to catch one of the Big Ten’s best teams in West Lafayette and at least give them a scare. After Jeff Brohm left to take over at Louisville, Purdue took a major step back in the first season under Ryan Walters, finishing just 4-8.
Despite the disappointing season, the Boilermakers have proven they have a reliable quarterback in Hudson Card who is coming back in 2024, and the schedule is well set. Both Oregon and Penn State travel to West Lafayette, one week after important games. Oregon hosts Ohio State in Week 7 and then travels to Purdue, the ultimate disappointment, in Week 8. The Nittany Lions travel to the Boilermakers, just one week after the White Out Game against Washington.
Walters needs a decisive win to give his program momentum, and if Oregon or Penn State come to town a little too relaxed, he could get that win.
Preseason over/under: 7.5. . 1. 488. . Last season: 5-7. . . Team. Nebraska
While Michigan State and Purdue have no realistic chance of clinching a CFP spot for the Big Ten, Nebraska may have a good chance of being in the race. In Matt Rhule’s first season, the Cornhuskers went 5-7, but the underlying numbers are a bit more promising.
Nebraska had the 11th best defense in the country but had no luck in close games, largely because of the quarterback position. Jeff Sims began the year as the starter before being benched for Heinrich Haarberg, and both had the same problem: turnovers. Of Nebraska’s seven losses, five were by one point, and the Cornhuskers ranked 132nd out of 133 teams in turnover percentage at -1.4 per game.
This offseason, five-star freshman Dylan Raiola decided to come to Lincoln to run Rhule’s offense. If he can just work and keep the ball, the Huskers can do some damage. Nebraska’s schedule begins with eight winnable games and six home games: against UTEP, against Colorado, against Northern Iowa, against Illinois, at Purdue, against Rutgers and at Indiana. Rhule’s team could potentially be 8-0 before a trip to Columbus to face Ohio State.
Even with a loss to the Buckeyes, Nebraska would only need to tie with UCLA, USC, Wisconsin and Iowa to achieve a 10-win season, which could put them among the top 12 teams in the country or even secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship.
