Former President Donald Trump’s recent comments about striking workers could have political consequences for the Republican candidate in some key swing states as the battle for the presidency becomes increasingly tense.
Two political scientists told Business Insider that Trump’s comments could motivate a historically strong voting bloc at a crucial moment in the campaign.
During a conversation with Elon Musk on Monday on X, Trump congratulated the Tesla CEO on being “the greatest cutter.”
“I look at what you do. You come in and say, ‘You want to quit?’ I won’t name the company, but they’re on strike, and you say, ‘That’s OK. They’re all gone. They’re all gone. So every one of you is gone.'”
It’s unclear which company Trump was referring to. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
The short-term consequences of Trump’s comments were not long in coming. The United Auto Workers union filed unfair labor practice charges against Trump and Musk, claiming that the two men had intimidated workers who wanted to exercise their right to join a union.
The National Labor Relations Board said it would investigate the allegations, which are essentially a request for an inquest. Under federal law, firing unionized workers who participate in a protected strike is illegal.
“Unforced error”
“It was an unnecessary mistake by Trump,” said Christian Grose, professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California.
It’s true, experts say, that union members have historically voted Democrat. President Joe Biden has presented himself as the most union-friendly president in decades – a nickname that Vice President Kamala Harris seems happy to embrace.
It’s also true that some union members have become increasingly willing to vote Republican in recent years, especially in blue-collar jobs like manufacturing, Grose said. Trump won over workers in 2016, in part because of his campaign messages around the economy, when he criticized trade deals that he said were hurting American workers.
As Harris’s vote count rises, Trump appears to be looking to win over at least some union voters. He has targeted the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, a 1.4 million-member group that has not yet endorsed a candidate.
Sean O’Brien, president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, who spoke at the Republican convention, told Politico of Trump’s recent comments: “Firing workers for organizing, striking and exercising their rights as Americans is economic terrorism.”
But the former president’s stance, which he announced to an audience of more than a million on Monday, could jeopardize that much-desired support, political experts say.
“Given how intense this campaign has become, Trump cannot afford to lose any group of voters, especially union members,” said Trish Crouse, a political scientist and public policy scholar at the University of New Haven.
Mobilization of the swing states
While it’s possible that Trump’s comments on Monday lost a small number of previously undecided union voters, it’s more likely that his apparent disdain for striking workers alienated a sizable group of Democratic voters, who found a new reason to take to the streets and try to win more voters over to their side, Grose says.
“There is a difference between having to go out and mobilize voters because that’s part of your job and being genuinely motivated to mobilize voters,” Grose said.
Unions have long been a powerful political force, with their coveted supporters and organizational talent. But their real power lies in mobilization, Grose said, adding that their influence on elections is often greater than their actual membership numbers.
Although membership has declined rapidly in recent decades, experts say unions still wield political power, particularly in some key swing states.
In three of the states that Harris and Trump are likely to contest on election night, union membership rates are over 12 percent.
According to 2023 government data, Nevada has 171,000 union members and 201,000 workers represented by a union, meaning they report not belonging to a union but working in unionized occupations. Michigan has 564,000 union members and 623,000 people are represented by a union. Pennsylvania has 749,000 union members and 822,000 workers represented by a union, representing 12.8% and 14.1% of employment in the state, respectively.
That’s more than 1.6 million union members in just three states who, experts say, are unlikely to appreciate Trump laughing with a billionaire about undermining workers’ rights.
“This will encourage the grassroots to take action,” he added.
The United Auto Workers union reacted immediately to Trump’s latest comments. President Shawn Fain called the former president a “strikebreaker” and accused him of being against “everything our union stands for.”
While it’s possible that Trump’s comments could have the opposite effect and mobilize the business community and anti-union voters, political experts say even business leaders may be reluctant to endorse anti-union statements.
“I think it was stupid to say that publicly, and most importantly, it’s not a good time to say something like that,” Grose said.
