Hear that sound? Can you smell what’s in the air? Draft season for fantasy football redraft leagues has finally begun!
Home leagues that use a redraft format (with or without goalies) are still the backbone of the fantasy football world, and over the next 20 days or so, tens of thousands, or maybe even hundreds of thousands, of leagues will go through the annual ritual of player selection. Nothing feels better than winning a draft in one of these leagues. But to do that, it’s not enough to just pick the first and middle rounds. Picks in the final six or seven rounds can really make a difference, and I’m not talking about grabbing your DST and kicker at the end of the draft.
With this in mind, today I will share with you a handful Swell to keep an eye on in the double-digit rounds. What is an underdog? Well, definitions vary, but this is my column, so get to define it! For me, it’s a player who is likely to be available late in drafts (or who may not get drafted at all) and who brings with him an upside opportunity that could turn into a significant contributor in fantasy this year. Jared Goff, Chase Brown, Jameson Williams, and Pat Freiermuth are not underdogs this year. We’ll dig deeper. For this exercise, I’ll only list running backs and wide receivers whose current Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) is above 130, and quarterbacks and tight ends (the “onesie” positions, and this article is geared toward 1-QB leagues) whose ECR is above 140. These are players that are often available to you after the 11th and 12th rounds in 12-team leagues are completed, or that you can snag for a buck or two at the end of your auction draft. You’ll want to have some surprise targets up your sleeve when the draft reaches the point where your league mates are opening their fifth beer and texting other people about the great fantasy team they just drafted.
I’m using ECR for this exercise because I think it better reflects what you’ll find in actual home league drafts than average draft position (ADP), which isn’t as useful at this stage of draft season. All ECRs shown are for half-point PPR.
I wrote this same column last season, and even though I used an even later cutoff for players, I did pretty well. Of course, most sleeper calls won’t hit, but I listed these players in my 2023 Sleepers article: Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Gus Edwards, Devin Singletary, Rashee Rice, and Jake Ferguson. I’ll try to find a few more players from the later rounds that can help you this season.
Before we get to my insider picks for 2024, here’s a link to my other preseason fantasy football content here at Big Blue View, including my July rankings, comeback candidates, a fantasy preview of the Giants, and more: Fantasy Football Hub.
OK, here we go. Here are a few cheap players who have exactly the potential you want with their late shots.
quarterback
Note: Baker Mayfield (QB23) has an ECR of 130 to give you an idea of where the cutoff point is for this exercise.
Swell:
Will Levis (ECR: 141, QB24)
Daniel Jones (ECR: 151, QB25)
JJ McCarthy (ECR: 225, (QB29)
Justin Fields (ECR: 235 (QB32)
Sam Darnold (ECR: 275 (QB33)
Most of the players listed above aren’t drafted in 1-QB leagues, but almost all are taken in superflex leagues, where it’s good to have three viable options at QB if possible. Levis is a better runner than people think, and with the improvements in weapons and offensive line in Tennessee, he could surprise this season. I don’t mind taking him as my second QB in a superflex (or better yet, my third, which is what I did in my Scott Fish Bowl draft). Jones is recovering from a torn ACL, and if he takes off like he did in 2022 (when he finished as QB10), it’s because he can still run and because rookie phenom Malik Nabers is everything he’s promised. Justin Fields may not start many games this year and could be a wasted pick, but that’s the way it is: IF he gets a chance to start, he immediately becomes a low-end QB1 with potential due to his immense rushing potential. It goes without saying that if he does, you want him on the bench and not on the waiver list where 12 teams will be fighting for him. So he’s worth a roster spot and will likely be drafted well ahead of ECR in most leagues. I think Minnesota’s quarterbacks will be interesting streamers/back-end QB2s this year. The trick will be figuring out if and when McCarthy takes Darnold’s spot, and that’s complicated now by McCarthy’s uncertain timeline for returning from his meniscus surgery. The ECRs above don’t reflect that injury, and if you draft now, Darnold is definitely more attractive. The coaching is excellent, as are the weapons, especially if TJ Hockenson returns.
Run back
Limit: Blake Corum (Coll. 126, RB 40), Zach Charbonnet (Coll. 127, RB 41), Trey Benson (Coll. 130, RB42)
Swell:
Chuba Hubbard (ECR 133, RB43)
Rico Dowdle (ECR 141, RB44)
Ty Chandler (ECR 142, RB45)
Tyler Allgeier (ECR 145, RB46)
Jaleel McLaughlin (ECR 147, RB47)
JK Dobbins (ER 153, RB49)
Khalil Herbert (ECR 154, RB50)
MarShawn Lloyd (ECR 156, RB51)
Jaylen Wright (ECR 166, RB53)
Elijah Mitchell (ECR 182, RB57)
Yes, I know, I know. That’s a long list, and honestly I could have easily added five or six more names. Running back is definitely a position you want to rush at the end of the draft. Every year, a lot of running backs get injured or lose their starting position, and backups pop up and suddenly become fantasy game-worthy. It’s hard to predict which backups will get those opportunities, but if they do, it’s MUCH better to have them on the bench than on someone else’s or on the waiver list. Taking a few of them in the later rounds will increase your chances of winning the backup RB lottery. Still, I like the positives about all of these guys, either because of an uncertain backfield in front of them, the belief that they might have more work than people expect, or their excellent handcuff value.
Wide receiver
Limit: Josh Palmer (Coll. 128, WR 54, Romeo Doubs (Coll. 129, WR55)
Swell:
Khalil Shakir (ECR 135, WR57)
Dontayvion Wicks (ECR 155, WR63)
Darnell Mooney (ECR 169, WR69)
Wan’Dale Robinson (ECR 176, WR73)
DeMarcus Robinson (ECR 182, WR75)
The wide receiver has a lot of options you can get in rounds 8-11, and there are a LOT of players with great potential that I want to target in that area (Keon Coleman, Rashid Shaheed, Jameson Williams, Ladd McConkey and Josh Palmeramong others). It’s a good chunk of the draft for wide receiver value. But it thins out pretty much after that, and I’m back to packing backup RBs in the later rounds. It’s also much easier to find serviceable WRs on the waiver list than RBs, which is another argument for filling the bench late with a preference for RBs over WRs. Still, there are some WRs with nice potential you can find here as well. I was on Mooney before Rondale Moore’s injury, and I like him even more now in an improved pass offense with Kirk Cousins. Wicks showed his talent last season, and the only problem for him is the opportunities. Injuries to other Green Bay WRs would open the door for him to have solid production at a bargain price. If you want to get exposure in this pass offense on the cheap, Wicks is your ticket. Shakir is Buffalo’s only wide receiver who played significant regular-season snaps with Josh Allen, and he was a late addition last season. He’s worth a shot. DeMarcus Robinson would be a viable WR3/flex player if Nacua or Kupp are out, and if Wan’Dale Robinson can finally stay healthy, he has some potential in an offense that should improve.
Tight end
Limit: Cole Kmet (Coll. 138, TE16)
Swell:
Luke Musgrave (Slg. 144, TE17)
Hunter Henry (ECR 150, TE18)
Tyler Conklin (ECR 165, TE19)
Taysom Hill (Coll. 171, TE21)
Ben Sinnott (ECR 192, TE26)
Jonnu Smith (ECR 258, TE32)
Tight end feels different this year. For the first time in a long time, there are multiple quality options at the top, and I definitely want a top-8 or top-9 player as my TE1. But I’m not excited about the lower-end TE1s/upper-end TE2s. After this group, I’m back in and think there are some interesting players you can either take as a second tight end if you have space or keep on your waiver wire/streamer speed dial. Henry and Conklin could both be among their teams’ top three most targeted players. Musgrave is talented, but could suffer from a lot of competition from target players, making him inconsistent. Sinnott is a rookie, so you never know, but chances are good. Jonnu Smith is free in drafts, but has more of a waiver wire target profile, and we’ll likely know pretty quickly if he’ll play a big role in Miami’s high-powered offense. And then there’s Taysom Hill. If you’ve never ridden the Taysom Coaster, make sure your safety bar is secured and keep your hands and feet inside at all times. The term “spike week” wasn’t invented for Hill, but it could have been. He’s ideal for a best-ball format, but with Juwan Johnson recovering from foot surgery, the “Swiss Army Knife” could fill more of a pass-receiving role early in the year. I think he’s worth a spot on the roster, and you can still get him later.
That’s the Zzz list for 2024. I hope my sleeper article didn’t put you to sleep! Coming soon: players to target at ADP and players to avoid, so stick around.