An outrageous price for a “mini” Green Line that goes nowhere

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As the Green Line heads toward disaster, the City Council is congratulating itself on being able to save its ill-conceived project by shortening the route (for the fifth time)—and spending even more money in the process.

It’s like watching a train crash in slow motion.

When former Mayor Nenshi pushed this legacy project in 2016, he promised a Green Line connecting communities from north to southeast through downtown at a cost of $4.65 billion, funded by federal, provincial and municipal taxpayers.

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Fast forward to July 31, 2024. Following the recommendation of the Green Line board, the current council has approved an ever-shorter route with fewer stations to serve even fewer riders, at a cost of a staggering $6.3 billion—a $700 million increase!

The mini-line “Nowhere Line” has five stations and runs from Lynnwood to Eau Claire. However, it only serves three communities outside the center: Inglewood, Ramsey and Ogden, with a total population of 14,600.

This Phase 1 compromise doesn’t extend north to the airport. It doesn’t reach the growing communities around the South Health Campus, where more commuters and fares offset operations. And while the city’s ridership projections have always been dubious, the revised estimate of 32,000 riders on opening day is laughable.

If every resident of these communities commutes downtown (which is unrealistic), the cost would be $425,000 per resident. Put another way, $6.3 billion for 10 kilometers of track is $630 million per kilometer. As one citizen suggests, the city should buy every resident a Tesla instead!

City councilors say, “We have to start somewhere,” but they don’t really know the cost of the Phase 1 plan, which the Green Line board says is only 60 percent complete. They’re guessing and have no idea what the cost of the entire length of the Green Line will be.

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The cost is just the tip of the iceberg. Building the rest of the Green Line could cost another $10 billion to $12 billion, with no guaranteed funding and a delivery date not expected for decades, if at all.

Even more worrying is that these estimates do not take into account capitalized, current operating and maintenance costs. Toronto has now included these costs in its estimates, which has people worried as the cost of the Ontario Line has tripled from $10 billion to $27 billion. Vancouver is also warning of looming cuts to public transit due to skyrocketing operating and maintenance costs.

The bottom line? This “mini” Green Line serves no purpose. Phase 1 is fraught with risk and commits the city to an untenable, unsustainable Phase 2.

Our citizens’ initiative never wanted to abolish the Green Line. Our goal was always to develop an affordable, sensible plan that would benefit commuters and save taxpayers money.

City council is stubbornly resisting and moving forward with risky downtown tunnels that will consume nearly half of the bloated budget. Calgary’s downtown core lies in a complex, highly unpredictable flood plain. The proposed expensive and unsafe downtown tunnels and subway stations are a huge risk and could result in higher costs that exceed the $6.3 billion budget.

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By eliminating the tunnels, Phase 1 could run above ground from 7th Avenue, connect to the existing Red and Blue Lines, and extend as far south as Seton — all within the original budget. Eight communities in the southeast, where thousands of residents work and live near the South Health Campus, would have light rail access to downtown. It’s puzzling that the city councilors representing these communities and those to the north have not advocated for their constituents.

Phase 1 alone will cost more than eight times the cost of the new event centre and will have profound, long-term consequences for taxpayers. Given Calgary’s unpredictable and ever-changing future, City Council’s decision forces our city into an outdated, fixed rail solution instead of more flexible, innovative transportation options.

Before the Green Line board can move forward with its partially developed 60 percent plan, it must obtain approvals from the federal and provincial governments – its funding partners. Because the scope of this project is significantly different from the original, the federal government is first requiring a comprehensive provincial review and approval of the plan by mid-August.

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As the province prepares its assessment of the “mini” Green Line, we urge them to also conduct an independent audit. The audit would examine the $1.5 billion already spent, the revised $6.3 billion budget, and the risks of exceeding those estimates. The province has made it clear that it does not support the risky and expensive downtown tunnels and wants to extend the Green Line further south.

Given the lack of transparency from the City, we urge the Province to confirm the costs and risks of Phase 1 to address taxpayer concerns.

Jim Gray and Steve Allan wrote this column on behalf of the Ad Hoc Citizens group, which represents thousands of Calgary residents who support an affordable, sensible Green Line, advocating for a Green Line that serves commuters and is easy on taxpayers’ wallets.

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