Japan’s Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi delivers a speech during a press conference at the Prime Minister’s Office in Tokyo on September 17, 2020.
Charly Triballeau | AFP | Getty Images
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new leader and thus the country’s next prime minister in September.
Nearly a dozen candidates will enter the race, and many analysts describe the field as highly competitive and unpredictable. The unusually broad and open contest is the result of attempts within the party to discourage “factional politics,” although faction-based ties still appear to be strong. Factions are organized subgroups within the LDP with their own leadership and political goals.
One of the possible frontrunners is Shinjiro Koizumi, who will hold a press conference on September 6 and announce his candidacy.
The 43-year-old son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is expected to be the youngest candidate in the race. Together with 49-year-old Takayuki Kobayashi, who has already announced his candidacy, the two are seen as candidates for the generational change in the party election.
Koizumi, a former environment minister, is known for his commitment to renewable energy. He made headlines for surfing near Fukushima to allay concerns about water safety following the discharge of treated wastewater. He was also the first serving minister in Japan to take paternity leave.
Rintaro Nishimura, a Japan-based analyst at Asia Group, said that while the public awaits formal announcements from the potential candidates, Koizumi is the closest to the favorite so far.
“His father’s legacy as a popular reformist, populist LDP president/prime minister and the fact that he is seen as scandal-free and inexperienced compared to other candidates, especially in the current climate, make him an attractive candidate,” he said.
Nishimura said Koizumi had a good chance of winning votes from both LDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members across Japan.
The winner of the LDP election must win a majority of the votes. If no candidate wins an absolute majority, there will be a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes.
“This time, as LDP lawmakers look ahead to next year’s general election, many of them are worried about their survival – whether they can keep their seats, especially the younger lawmakers who have served fewer terms,” Nishimura said.
“I don’t think the safe option is the right one this time. It’s more about which candidate can win the general election. And in this case, someone as popular as Koizumi will naturally be among the favorites.”
Koizumi has also proven to be one of the most popular candidates among the population. A poll by local newspaper Asahi Shimbun found Koizumi tied with Shigeru Ishiba nationwide, with both 21 percent more popular. However, Koizumi received the most support among LDP supporters surveyed, at 28 percent, while Ishiba received only 23 percent, according to the poll.
However, there are questions about Koizumi’s level of experience and his political prospects.
Tobias Harris, founder of the consulting firm Japan Foresight, said in a recent online post that while Koizumi has “the greatest potential to fundamentally change the election campaign,” his resume is thin. He has neither held a top position in the party leadership nor a high cabinet post.
“He is a successful campaigner and has worked on a range of issues, but his foreign policy experience is limited, which could be a particular weakness in the LDP chairman’s election, which is already influenced by the US presidential election and the prospect of a second Trump administration,” Harris wrote.
Little is known about his economic policies either.
“As far as I know, Koizumi has not commented on the BOJ’s monetary policy normalization,” Harris told CNBC.
“We can draw certain conclusions – he was concerned about fiscal policy and budget deficits, he has ties to (former defense minister) Shigeru Ishiba and others who were critical of Abenomics – but I don’t think we know for sure. In general, the party, with the exception of the right wing, is leaning toward normalization.”
CLSA’s Japan strategist Nicholas Smith said it was too early for Koizumi to take the top job.
“It’s all about experience. He’s been elected five times. That’s the low end of what’s acceptable,” he said.
“In addition, he held a small cabinet post responsible for nuclear safety, but that is not a high position. People will say you cannot be prime minister if you have not done the other jobs.”
The LDP election will take place on September 27.
