BOZEMAN, Montana – The ever-changing landscape of college football continues to evolve, and perhaps the most consistent factor is the unpredictability of it all.
Things are particularly bleak in the West, especially after the dissolution of the Pac 12. What will happen to Oregon State and Washington State? How will Oregon, Washington and USC fare in the Big Ten?
Many of these questions have no clear answers, including speculation about the future of the Big Sky Conference and the Mountain West, the two Division I football leagues in the Mountain & Pacific time zones that are nowhere near a piece of the Power 5 pie.
Some have speculated that realignment could be a solution, especially if the Group of Five implements its own playoff system. But do the non-FBS schools have the financial resources to compete?
Whatever the future holds, the Big Sky and Mountain West have seen plenty of crossover football matchups in recent years, and the Big Sky has held its own against an FBS conference that can award 85 full scholarships compared to the 63 allotted to FCS schools.
“In recent history, most of the games between our conference and the Mountain West have been hard-fought,” Montana State head coach Brent Vigen said Monday, as a Week 0 clash with New Mexico in the Mountain West looms to open the 2024 season.
“Some teams in our league have managed to win a few of these every year. In a single game, early in the season, I think we can compete.
New Mexico has won just 11 games in the last four years under former head coach Danny Gonzales, including a 5-26 record in Mountain West play. Combine that with the fact that Montana State has qualified for the Final Four of the FCS playoffs three times since 2019 and is working on a streak of playoff appearances dating back to 2018, as well as the fact that MSU is 32-9 in three seasons under Vigen despite losing four games last fall, and it means the Bobcats are as clear a favorite as any Big Sky team in the post-pandemic era against a Mountain West host heading into Saturday’s clash at University Stadium in Albuquerque.
“The difference in scholarships certainly plays out over the course of a season and the depth might be different, but I think teams in our league schedule these games because they feel like they can compete,” Vigen said. “That’s the opportunity we have.”
Montana State started as a 4.5-point favorite on the Las Vegas betting line. The number has since risen to 13.5 points at press time and could rise even further if money continues to flow into the Bobcats.
New Mexico has a new head coach in Bronco Mendenhall with a reputation for winning. During his time in Provo, he led BYU to 11 consecutive bowl games before things got tougher in Virginia. The Lobos also have more than 60 new players on their roster and haven’t won since 2016.
“Regardless of the level, I don’t really look at the level,” Mendenhall said. “I look at the quality of the players, the quality of the systems, the quality of the coaching, the quality of the program. I’m impressed with Montana State.”
One of the most common personnel mismatches in favor of FBS teams when they play FCS opponents is in the trenches. But Montana State boasts one of the best offensive lines in the West despite missing four-year starting center Justus Perkins for the opening game. And Montana State’s deep defensive line, led by preseason All-American defensive end Brody Grebe, is also a top-notch unit that boasts talent, depth and pedigree from the Mountain West.
That, along with the fact that MSU has 23 seniors and a four-year starting quarterback in Tommy Mellott, helps make Montana State one of the biggest favorites in recent history for an FCS team opening its season on the road against an FBS team.
“I hope we can compete up front against whoever we play, and that really has to be our calling card on both sides of the ball,” Vigen said. “Our ability to be successful on offense starts with our ability to be successful up front and move people, pressure people and stay with people. On defense, our success starts with our front line’s ability to disrupt the run game and chase the passer.
“Our experience beforehand gives you the feeling that it’s a good place to start, at least.”
There is no overlap between Vigen and Mendenhall as opposing coaches. Vigen coached at Wyoming from 2014 to 2021. And while BYU was in the Mountain West for half of Mendenhall’s 12 seasons as head coach, the Cougars moved to the independent FBS in 2011. Mendenhall left for Virginia before the 2016 season.
Still, Mendenhall’s coaching roots – he was defensive coordinator for Rocky Long’s New Mexico teams in the late 1990s and early 2000s – have some elements similar to Vigen’s, and vice versa.
Mendenhall and Long are considered two of the primary architects of the 3-3-5 stack defense. Long used the offensive scheme to great success as head coach at San Diego State. Bobby Hauck, the head coach at Montana, worked under Long for three seasons at SDSU before returning to UM after a nearly decade-long absence. And the Griz have employed a similar defensive scheme ever since.
Despite the familiarity between Mendenhall and Vigen, mutual respect is evident.
“When you talk about Montana State, the first thing you have to understand is that it’s a football program, not a football team,” Mendenhall said in his season-opening press conference. “There’s a difference. There are teams that flash and disappear. There are teams that are consistent and there are teams that aren’t. When a team is consistent year after year, it starts to build toward being a program, and Montana State has done a really good job of establishing that kind of program.”
Mendenhall has a 135-81 record in his coaching career. 12 of those wins have come against FCS opponents, including an 8-0 victory while at BYU. He also went 4-1 against FCS Virginia, but the lone loss, a 37-20 loss to No. 4 Richmond early in his first season at Virginia in 2016, is what sticks in his mind.
“The lessons … that was an impressive game after taking over the University of Virginia, an ACC Power 5 program, and after the success at BYU and the opener against Richmond at home. I remember walking out in warmups and seeing Richmond and also seeing my team, and I came into the locker room after warmups and told our coaches, ‘We’re in trouble,'” Mendenhall recalled. “I really talked about the conduct of our players. I said go to your guys right now.
“That’s the only FCS team that’s beaten me in my career, and it was 37 to 20, and it felt even more one-sided. They beat us by a lot. That helped me understand more clearly where we stood.”
A team from the Big Sky Conference beat a team from the Mountain West. team once in each of the last three seasons. In 2021, Eastern Washington went to UNLV and picked up a 35-31 victory that started a 10-win playoff season. In 2022, Weber State defeated Utah State 35-7 to get a 10-win playoff season. And last season, Idaho destroyed Nevada 33-7 en route to nine wins and a run to the quarterfinals of last season’s FCS playoffs.
“This is a really tough opponent that will test us in a lot of ways,” Vigen said. “Whether you’re playing a really good FCS out-of-conference opponent or a really good FBS opponent, you want to be tested, you want to see where you stand, and we’re sure New Mexico will give us that.”
The Big Sky also had close losses in MW. In 2021, Vigen’s first game at the helm of MSU ended in a 19-16 loss at Wyoming. In 2022, Portland State had a close loss before falling to San Jose State 21-17. And last season, Idaho State put pressure on San Diego State before falling 36-28. EWU also gave Fresno State everything before losing 34-31.
The difference in those close calls, however, was that only Montana State came back and put together a playoff-worthy season. Portland State finished 2022 with a 4-7 record. Idaho State went 3-8 last fall, while Eastern Washington finished 4-8.
“We have to approach every game with the mindset that we are coming to compete and to win,” Vigen said. “It’s as simple as that.”
“When you play against a talented team, a good team, a team with a lot of depth, you have to hang in there for four quarters and that’s our goal.”
