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South Africa’s radical Economic Freedom Fighters party, led by hardliner Julius Malema, threatened to “implode,” analysts said, after months of tensions in the country’s leadership came to the surface with the defection of its powerful deputy leader.
With its programme calling for land redistribution and the nationalisation of key parts of the economy, Malema’s party was able to build a considerable following among disenfranchised South Africans over the course of more than a decade.
However, it performed poorly in the parliamentary elections in May, receiving only 9.5 percent of the vote and being overtaken by the emerging uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party of former South African President Jacob Zuma.
The two parties with the most votes, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress and the centrist Democratic Alliance, later formed a unity government with eight other parties, from which the EFF and MK parties were excluded.
Weeks of mutual recriminations culminated last week when Floyd Shivambu, Malema’s deputy who co-founded the party with him in 2013, said he would resign to join Zuma’s MK party. Mzwanele Manyi, another leading EFF figure who held key positions in parliament, did the same, and analysts expect others to follow suit.
Shivambu described his resignation in his resignation letter as “a revolutionary act that will enable progressive forces to unite”.
Malema initially appeared to accept Shivambu’s resignation, but then went on the offensive, attacking “silent enemies” within the EFF and calling on anyone unsure of their loyalty to “leave immediately”.
Speaking to EFF members in Soweto this week, Malema spoke of “those who betrayed me” and used him for their own gain.
Analysts say the defections were likely influenced by Malema’s increasingly authoritarian approach – a year ago he fired 200 party members for failing to arrange transport to the party’s 10th anniversary – as well as his unwillingness to give up the party leadership.
They also pointed to a criminal investigation into a R2 billion ($122 million) theft from VBS Mutual Bank. Both Shivambu and Malema have been incriminated by the bank’s former chief executive, who agreed to a settlement last month detailing how he made the payments to both.
“At this point, it’s hard not to think the EFF is imploding,” said Ralph Mathekga, an independent political analyst. “It was a party that was formed around Malema that is now falling apart, so I expect the EFF to be crushed in the 2026 local elections. In the longer term, the disintegration of the EFF will likely lead to a realignment of South African politics.”
Mathekga said Malema’s unwillingness to institutionalise the party and put in place an orderly succession plan through which people like Shivambu could rise to senior positions was now his great weakness. “This sends a strong message to other EFF members: if Floyd, the founder of the party, could not become its leader, what hope do others have,” he said.
The defectors also refute the portrayal that Malema is a shrewd political tactician – a view that was already shattered when his negotiations with Ramaphosa for posts in the unity government failed to produce any results.
While some reports said Malema had demanded the position of deputy president as a condition for the EFF’s inclusion in the unity government, he said at the Soweto meeting that he “never asked for any position”. Senior ANC officials also said negotiators believed Malema’s demand to exclude the DA from the unity government went too far.
While Malema’s loss would appear to be Zuma’s gain, Mathekga said this is not necessarily the case.
“If anything, these moves show how weak South Africa’s left parties are. We have seen the MK party appear just as chaotic, so it does not look like Zuma’s meteoric rise in the last election can be sustained in the long term,” he said.
MK this month fired 18 of its own MPs who had been sworn in just weeks before, with some accusing the party of trying to recruit “friends” of powerful figures, particularly Zuma’s daughter Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla.
Mbhazima Shiłowa, a former ANC leader who has since retired from politics, said Shivambu’s defection indicated a hostile takeover of the EFF by Zuma’s party. But he said it was still unclear whether it would be a fatal blow to the EFF. “Contrary to the claim that this will strengthen the relationship between the MK Party and the EFF, it could have the opposite effect,” he said.
