This article is the continuation of a four-part series and focuses on key players disappearing from your fantasy drafts due to injury concerns. For weekly injury insights and adjustments, follow @jmthrivept for his injury database. Use the extremely helpful 4for4 Multi-Site ADP tool to track player ADPs.
Daniel JonesQB NYC
Injury: right anterior cruciate ligament
If we’re being honest, Daniel Jones’ play could go either way. He’ll have had nine months and 18 days to recover from his ACLR by Week 1 and is in position to step right into the QB1 role for a mobile, quarterback-obsessed Brian Daboll. The issues that remain: 1) the offensive line remains a huge problem, 2) accuracy issues have persisted in camp, and 3) multiple quarterbacks being drafted within his range or after him are interesting. I don’t think the Giants will bench Jones at any point, as Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito aren’t in the same category as passers. However, given the cost and concerns of re-injury, as well as concerns about the offensive line, I would rather trade Jones in favor of quarterbacks Geno Smith, Will Levis, Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, and even Taysom Hill, who is listed as quarterback but is used all over the offense, including opportunities at the goal line. Despite the potential rushing upside/volume for Jones, I’m leaning toward trading him.
Related Topics: Quarterback Sleepers, Values and Breakouts
Anthony RichardsonQB IND
Injury: Right shoulder, AC joint repair
First off, Anthony Richardson has looked impressive in his return from his AC joint repair, a very significant surgery on the dominant side of a throwing athlete. He has shown very good speed, power, tight spirals, and throwing technique as far as his return to form goes. I like him for fantasy purposes, but I’ll argue against him because of ADP. Accuracy issues persist, which shouldn’t be surprising considering Week 1 of the preseason was his fifth NFL game overall. He is currently being taken off the board as QB5 at ~57.0 overall, ahead of promising mobile quarterbacks Kyler Murray and Jordan Love and projected high pass volume quarterbacks CJ Stroud, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott.
Targeting massive potential weekly will win you weeks, but there should be an argument for passing on Richardson at the cost in favor of another RB, WR, or TE with massive potential while trying to get another quarterback with massive potential and less injury risk in rounds 6-9. The other positions have a pretty high drop off in performance, while the drop off in performance at quarterback is not as extreme. With that argument, I’m completely fine with relegating Richardson to the cost as QB5 and saving myself the worry of injury risk.
Marquise Brown, WR KC
Injury: Sprain of the left posterior SC
Initially, I thought Brown wouldn’t need to slow down too much after his recent injury, but then I realized his current ADP is a wild WR37 and ~61.3 overall, putting him ahead of players like Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, Xavier Worthy, George Kittle, Diontae Johnson, Brian Thomas Jr., and many others. While his talent when healthy is evident, he just hasn’t been able to stay healthy over the years. This time, he sustained a very bad posterior SC joint sprain that required hospitalization to make sure the medial clavicle didn’t puncture any arteries. He was released from the hospital the next day, but these sprains often take 4-6 weeks to heal properly, putting his week one status at risk. I’m letting him slow down at least 2-3 full rounds in ADP.
DeAndre HopkinsWR TEN
Injury: Sprain of the left knee
After suffering a left knee sprain (presumably MCL or PCL), DeAndre Hopkins’ status for Week 1 is in jeopardy as his recovery will take 4-6 weeks, although Callahan recently stated that they expect Hopkins to return soon and plan to have him active in Week 1. He enters the season at age 32 and is coming off a significant tear of his right MCL that required surgery. He is expected to play the X position on the Titans’ offense, allowing Calvin Ridley to operate freely in the lineup in Brian Callahan’s “Ja’Marr Chase” role. Given Hopkins’ age and lengthy injury history, there are concerns that even when he returns, his acceleration and takeoff will be compromised, making it more difficult to breakaway or gain yards after the catch.
At his current cost of WR47, ~85.2 overall, I’m dropping him in favor of other options with potential in his range, like Jaylen Warren, Jordan Addison, Jake Ferguson, D’Andre Swift, and even Jonathan Brooks. If his ADP drops by nearly two rounds, drafting him will hurt a little less in terms of re-injury risk.
Nick ChubbRB CLE
Injury: Left anterior cruciate ligament, posterior cruciate ligament, meniscus
Nick Chubb’s ADP continues to slowly increase, and since his workout videos surfaced, he has been drafted in the early RB30s multiple times. As his ADP increases, the percentage I will assign to him increases in a difficult trade-off between upside potential and cost. The best case scenario is that he returns in October and scores multiple touchdowns with high goal line usage through November and December, leading into the fantasy playoffs. Realistically, he doesn’t have much upside at all as a receiver, meaning we would be relying on a significant number of rushing yards and safe weekly touchdowns.
This is a risky bet considering it’s August and he hasn’t participated in full lateral, mobility, or cutting drills yet. He also needs to do more sport-specific drills and return to the football field with pads. I would have loved to draft him when he was at RB44 or later, but unfortunately the hype will push him too much for his comfort. He will be weaker due to injury recovery timelines as well as workload and concerns about re-injury risk.
Ricky PearsallWR SF
Injury: AC sprain
Ricky Pearsall is off to a slow start to his NFL career after dealing with a hamstring strain and now re-injuring a previous AC sprain he suffered in May. He has missed several weeks of practice due to the re-injury and is behind Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and is outperformed by Jacob Cowing. I’m pulling Pearsall for the 2024 season even if Aiyuk is traded. The starter opposite Samuel will likely be Jauan Jennings.
Elijah MitchellRB SF
Injury: thigh strain
Elijah Mitchell has one of the highest injury risk profiles for running backs in the NFL and is battling another injury, allowing Jordan Mason to step into the backup role behind Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers have a tough decision to make regarding their backfield, which is loaded with CMC, Mason, rookie Isaac Guerendo (who will likely have a redshirt-like season), veteran Matt Breida and another rookie who is impressing in Cody Schrader. I’m leaving Mitchell out of the draft, especially for Mason as a late-round running back pick.
Related: Analyzing Fantasy Football Running Back Draft Strategies for 2024
Kendre MillerRB NO
Injury: thigh strain
A running back with a potentially worse injury risk profile than Elijah Mitchell is Kendre Miller, a second-year player for the Saints who faces a daunting challenge to get back into the good graces of old-school head coach Dennis Allen. Allen has recently stated that it will be difficult for Miller to get into the rotation and has indicated that he is very frustrated that Miller cannot stay healthy. Given his red injury profile (high risk) and the coaching staff’s frustration with a lack of confidence, I am holding Miller out of the draft. It will likely leave Jamal Williams and Taysom Hill as running backs behind Alvin Kamara.
Thanks for reading the next part of the injury series. Follow me on X/Twitter @jmthrivept for more updates.
