The DPP congress in Blantyre is a well-organized event, the venue is beautifully decorated and the highlight of the congress will undoubtedly be the speech by the party chairman Peter Mutharika.
His speech was far from the usual boring speeches; he captivated the audience with interesting remarks, relevant jokes and an overall positive mood that delighted the delegates and guests. I sincerely congratulate him and the DPP on this.
But beyond the well-organised event and Mutharika’s entertaining speech, the congress also revealed the current sad and broken state of the DPP.
Those of us who have closely followed the life cycle of the DPP since its inception in 2014 and 2019 lament that a party that was once a formidable force in Malawian politics is on the verge of collapse, stripped of the political material that made it powerful and unbeatable.
The faces of passionate, brilliant youth, great men and women, charismatic and powerful MPs who once made the DPP a force to be reckoned with were not seen at the convention. The convention reminded some of us that many people who were instrumental in the party’s success have left the party or been deposed, leaving the DPP looking like a naked child trying to be brazen and bold in front of an angry crowd.
The convention’s slogan, “Back to proven leadership: A call to all Malawians to restore hope, rebuild the economy and heal our country’s shattered unity,” is indeed a catchy and relevant campaign message this season. However, it reveals the party’s lack of connection to reality and self-reflection.
The DPP cannot realistically talk about restoring hope to Malawians and rebuilding the economy when the party itself is in desperate need of hope and reconstruction. The message seems misplaced as the DPP must first resolve its own internal problems before it can credibly promise to heal the nation. The unity the party seeks to restore in the country seems more necessary within the party itself, where irreconcilable fractures have been evident since 2020 and are still hidden behind fake smiles pretending to support the APM candidacy for lack of alternatives.
And as for the “return to proven leadership” aspect of the issue, I hesitate to simply agree. Mutharika’s biggest test will not be how the economy and commodity prices were managed between 2014 and 2019, but how he led the failed DPP.
Most of the economic indicators that spoke of a stable economy had nothing to do with Mutharika because they were indicators of monetary policy and not fiscal policy. The indicators included inflation rate, interest rates, foreign reserves and foreign exchange rates and the like. These indicators are based on monetary policy and are managed by the Reserve Bank, not the central government which manages fiscal policy. This means that it was largely the competent minds of the Reserve Bank who did a good job and had the “tested leadership” and not President Mutharika per se. Therefore, again, there is the potential that the theme of the DPP congress will mislead Malawians into celebrating the wrong people.
In conclusion, the idea of forming an electoral alliance with AFORD, UDF and UTM is an interesting and potentially attractive strategy. However, I am very skeptical about this idea. Listen to me carefully.
The UDF only received around 200,000 votes nationwide in 2019 and AFORD currently has no measurable support despite Enoch Chihana’s commendable efforts to revive and reposition the party. However, I estimate that AFORD has around 30,000 votes so far. UTM, which received around 1 million votes in 2019, appears to be the main potential partner in the upcoming DPP alliance.
It is important to note, however, that the votes for UTM were largely due to Saulos Chilima’s appeal at the time. With Chilima now out of the race, UTM’s strength has probably dropped by about 60%. I estimate that current support for UTM is currently around 400,000 votes. So DPP’s potential alliance partners total about 630,000 votes.
Unfortunately, the DPP itself has lost significant voters over the last four years as a result of the leadership crisis and the loss of other party leaders. In 2019, the DPP had about 1.9 million votes and I estimate that this number has dropped, leaving it weaker than before at about 1.3 million. These estimates give the alliance of DPP, UTM, UDF and AFORD almost 1.9 million votes, which is about what the DPP had in 2019 without the alliance.
While the idea of an alliance sounds promising, the reality is that the combined forces of these parties may not be enough to make a significant impact without addressing the deeper problems within the DPP itself and, of course, the leadership crisis in the UTM.
Follow and subscribe to Nyasa TV:
