The 2024 college football season marks the debut of Arizona, Arizona State and Utah as members of the Big 12 Conference and the return of Colorado to the league.
However, the Big 12 will lose two of its most prestigious schools in Texas and Oklahoma, which have moved to the SEC.
Which team will step up and be the next face of the Big 12? Will Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes take the league by storm?
Both Utah and Kansas State have the highest projected win percentage within the conference at 9.5 wins.
Utah quarterback Cam Rising will return to the Utes for the 2024 season after missing the entire 2023 season. The dual-threat QB was the MVP of the 2022 Pac-12 Championship Game and was a semifinalist for the Davey O’Brien Award and the Maxwell Award.
With Will Howard moving to Ohio State, Avery Johnson will start at quarterback for Kansas State and will look to build on his great performance in last season’s bowl game.
Let’s take a look at the projected win totals for each Big 12 team according to DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 16.
Utah
Over 9.5: -145 (bet $10 to win $16.90 total)
Under 9.5: +125 (bet $10 to win a total of $22.50)
State of Kansas
Over 9.5: +125 (bet $10 to win a total of $22.50)
Under 9.5: -145 (bet $10 to win $16.90 total)
State of Oklahoma
Over 8: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
Under 8: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Arizona
Over 7.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Under 7.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)
Kansas
Over 8: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
Under 8: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Texas Tech
Over 7.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Under 7.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
TCU
Over 7.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Under 7.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)
State of Iowa
Over 7.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
Under 7.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
UCF
Over 7.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
Under 7.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
West Virginia
Over 6.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
Under 6.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Baylor
Over 5.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Under 5.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
Colorado
Over 5.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)
Under 5.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Cincinnati
Over 5: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)
Under 5: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
BYU
Over 4.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Under 4.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
State of Arizona
Over 4.5: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Under 3.5: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)
Houston
Over 3.5: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)
Under 3.5: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
CFB Preview: Odds and best bets for the Heisman Trophy
Gambling Analyst at FOX Sports Geoff Schwartz gives his best tips for the future within the Big 12.
UCF Over/Under 7.5 Wins
The Golden Knights won six games last season in their first season in a Power Five conference, a respectable number for a rising Group of Five team.
While you know what your record says, a more nuanced way to look at a record is to go through it game by game to see why a team won or lost. UCF was able to build an early lead in its conference losses but couldn’t build on wins. The Knights lost two points to Oklahoma, one point to Texas Tech and blew a 28-point lead against Baylor.
UCF proved in year one that it can compete with the big boys and now looks to improve in year two.
Head coach Gus Malzahn drafted Arkansas-born quarterback KJ Jefferson. And let me be the first to say this: He bears a striking resemblance to Cam Newton, the Heisman and National Championship-winning quarterback who played for Malzahn at Auburn.
It’s unfair to compare anyone to Cam Newton, but Jefferson’s skill set is a good fit for Malzahn’s offense. UCF has plenty of talented players returning in 2024 to help Jefferson. The defense struggled to stop the run last season, so the Knights traded away the defensive coordinator and added experienced linebackers to the portal to bolster the run defense.
The Knights’ schedule looks good enough for them to win at least eight games. They don’t have Kansas State or Oklahoma. They get Utah and Arizona at home, and then they have winnable games against BYU, Cincinnati, Arizona State and Colorado.
I think UCF will get over 7.5 wins.
CHOICE: UCF over 7.5 wins
Arizona State Over/Under 4.5 Wins
I don’t like that part of my job. I’m against having a head coach who I absolutely know can coach and will turn a program around at some point – it’s just not going to happen at ASU in 2024.
The Sun Devils just aren’t talented enough right now to compete against the teams they have on the schedule. Their offense is loaded with players from transfer portals and players who didn’t see much playing time last season, whether due to injury or lack of skill.
State’s defense has reorganized itself in the trenches by adding experienced players. This group may be better than expected, but we don’t know. “We don’t know” might actually sum up Arizona State perfectly.
And then there’s that schedule. The Sun Devils have faced the top six teams in the conference. Utah, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona and UCF are all on the schedule. They also have a road game at Texas Tech and Mississippi State is coming to town.
I see a maximum of four wins this season.
Ole Miss could be CFP underdog candidate
CHOICE: Arizona State under 4.5 wins
Utah wins Big 12
Everyone aboard the Kyle Whittingham hype train.
I’ll bet Utah whenever possible, and the Utes are well-equipped to win the Big 12 in their first season in the conference. They missed most snaps and starts last season due to injuries. And the Utes will see some positive development there, and that starts with some of their more important players.
Remember, Utah quarterback Cam Rising is back—the two-time Pac-12 champion. Tight end Brant Kuithe is back on the field as well. So are several members of the defense who missed last season with injuries. The Utes need to replace some players on defense, but they should find those players.
The schedule isn’t bad either. Utah plays back-to-back games against Oklahoma State and Arizona and finishes Thanksgiving weekend at UCF. That’s a potential losing spot. However, it’s possible Utah has secured a spot in the title game and won’t have to use its core players in that contest.
The Utes will win the conference title game.
TIP: Utah wins Big 12 (+320)
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