Walker Buehler’s return is a symbol of the difficult recovery after Tommy John surgery

When it comes to peak performance for the playoffs, the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers rely on modern medicine. Tommy John surgeries have become so commonplace that there’s a danger of assuming guys will be as good as new when they return.

How often have you heard when so and so comes back It’s like trading for a powerful pitcher. In reality, every UCL tear, every surgery, and every pitcher is a little different.

The Dodgers thought Walker Buehler (24 months post-surgery) would be in playoff shape by now (or Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin; that won’t happen either). The Giants thought Robbie Ray (15 months post-surgery) would help spark a second-half surge. The Rangers figured Tyler Mahle (15 months post-surgery) and Jacob deGrom (14 months) would carry the team in the closing stages.

None of that is happening. The Dodgers have no idea what their rotation will look like in the postseason. The Giants are still under .500 and are 25-36 against winning teams. The Rangers have essentially played themselves out of contention while waiting for reinforcements.

The operation could occur more frequently – even to usual – but the road back is still marked by setbacks and overtime. No matter how many times a pitcher looks great in bullpens and simulation games (and that’s pretty much all you ever hear about), getting back on the mound in a game with consequences and outside scrutiny is something else entirely.

On Wednesday, both Buehler (3 1/3 innings) and Ray (2/3 of an inning) stumbled through shortened starts, losing their teams in the process. Here’s a look at what Buehler and Ray, two key potential playoff starters, looked like overall in their returns, as well as other key starting pitchers poised for a similar comeback. Small sample limitations apply in all cases, but they show that returning to form takes longer than returning to the mound.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers (5.58 ERA in 9 starts)

His three-pitch throw relies more on timing and body speed than most pitchers. Buehler has still not been consistently happy with his throw, which has led to control issues. His throws have a wider spread than normal.

It’s about more than just control, though. Buehler’s throws just don’t have the same sharpness. Left-handed hitters are hitting .612 against him, including .667 against his fastball. One of the best pitchers in the game at striking out hitters over the past six years is having a lot of trouble finishing them:

It’s not a question of speed. What’s more telling is that the spin rates on his four-seamer (-193), cutter (-170), sinker (-192), knuckle curveball (-269) and slider (-98) have dropped significantly.

Robbie Ray (6.00 ERA in 5 starts)

The swing and miss stuff is still there (32.6%, near his career high), but Ray has allowed too many free baserunners (16 walks and hit batters in 21 innings) and his small fly ball rate (career high 40%) has led to a higher home run rate (6.5%).

The difficulty in judging Ray is that he has tweaked and sometimes even reworked his technique throughout his career. For example, he went through a phase of having short arms and then abandoned it. When he won the Cy Young Award in 2021, he stood with his shoulders squared to the plate before stepping on the rubber. This year, he stands sideways before he begins his windup.

But the biggest change for Ray this year is that he’s throwing with the least stretch since 2019. Ray’s four-seam velocity is a half-tick lower than it was in 2021. But when you factor in his loss of stretch, it looks like his fastball to the hitter is 0.7 mph lower.

Here are the release points of two Ray fastballs three years apart.

Notice that his release point is a little over four inches lower in his Cy Young season. This is due in part to pure arm angle. You can see that his arm is straighter this year. The higher release point forces the head and upper body to tilt to the right to allow the shoulder and arm to work through the higher slot. The shoulders are more tilted.

In addition, the higher slot is also due to a lower stretch. Ray doesn’t get as far down the hill as he did in 2021, which causes him to stand a little more upright.

All of these small differences are reflected in the measurements: less stretch at higher release and a larger drop in perceived speed than actual speed.

Giants manager Bob Melvin had to pull Ray from the game on Wednesday after he threw 39 pitches and still hadn’t gotten out of the first inning. “After a long break,” Melvin told reporters, “we’ve got some tough games ahead of us.”

Shane Baz, Rays (4.21 ERA in 7 starts)

Twenty-three months after Tommy John surgery, his strikeout rate has dropped and his walk rate has increased. He’s throwing his fastball more often, but the way it’s being pitched up suggests a command problem. Batters are hitting .375 and hitting .562 on his heater, but .177 and .266 on his secondary pitches.

Jacob deGrom, Rangers (did not pitch)

After throwing 40 pitches at 99 mph during live batting practice on Sunday, deGrom appears ready for a minor league rehab assignment or two, which would put him in line to start around Aug. 28 — 14 1/2 months after his Tommy John surgery.

Luis Garcia, Astros (did not pitch)

Garcia has had to interrupt his rehab work twice because of pain in his elbow, which was treated 15 months ago. With no timetable yet for returning to throwing, Garcia may be running out of time to build enough arm strength to get started.

Tyler Mahle, Rangers (2.79 ERA in 2 starts)

Fastball velocity is slightly lower (93.2 to 92.1), but he retains his excellent movement characteristics. He has thrown just five innings and 4 2/3 innings in his two starts.

Max Meyer, Marlins (5.20 ERA in 7 starts)

Meyer underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2022. After sitting out last season, he is subject to strict innings limits imposed by Miami this year. In the majors and minors, Meyer has thrown 94 1/3 innings in 22 starts, averaging 4 1/3 innings per start. His fastball has dropped half a tick. At 25, he has never thrown more than 92 pitches in a professional game.

Jeffrey Springs, Rays (4.61 ERA in 3 starts)

Fifteen months after Tommy John surgery, Springs threw a no-walk, eight-strikeout pitch on Sunday. His velocity (90.3) isn’t back to last year’s level (91.7), but his changeup looks nasty.