After Japan’s citizens had spent a week preparing for a possible mega-earthquake, the largest earthquake wave has now hit the country’s political epicenter: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that he would resign next month.
His three-year term ends at the end of September, when his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elects a new president who is assured of confirmation as Japan’s next prime minister in the LDP-controlled parliament.
Kishida’s decision paved the way for one of the most unpredictable elections for the LDP chairmanship in recent years.
“By withdrawing from the race, Kishida has paved the way for a particularly chaotic LDP election, turning an already tough campaign with a vulnerable incumbent into a tussle with numerous plausible competitors but no obvious favorite,” said Tobias Harris, founder of political risk consulting firm Japan Foresight.
The list of possible successors includes party insiders, maverick ministers and – unusually for Japan – two MPs under the age of 50. The possibility of two women entering the race raises the prospect – albeit currently unlikely – that the country will appoint its first female prime minister.
It is fitting that the outcome of the party election is so difficult to predict, as it comes at a time of great uncertainty for the LDP, a loose coalition of conservatives that has ruled Japan almost continuously since its founding in the mid-1950s.
Kishida’s withdrawal from the race is attributed to a series of scandals that have overshadowed much of his time as prime minister: revelations about his party’s ties to the Unification Church in the wake of Shinzo Abe’s assassination in July 2022 and, more recently, public anger over a donations scandal that marked the beginning of the end of his term.
The LDP at least has time on its side. The priority of its next leader will be to regain public trust before the next lower house election, which is not due to take place until October next year. His successor will also have to contend with the rising cost of living, escalating tensions with China and North Korea, and the possible return of Donald Trump as US president.
“If the LDP chooses its next leader in a way that ignores public criticism of the political funding scandals, the party could suffer a crushing defeat,” said political analyst Atsuo Ito. “The party must choose someone who is young, has no ties to the current government and can present a new LDP.”
According to Ito, this also means that the party’s general secretary, Toshimitsu Motegi, is out of the question because he is associated with the party’s horse-trading, which is alienating voters.
It may fall to another 60-year-old, Shigeru Ishiba, to help the party. Ishiba, a former defense minister who has confirmed his intention to run, failed in four attempts to become party leader but consistently does well with voters. He should have no trouble winning the support of 20 lawmakers who candidates need to enter the race, which will be decided among the party’s 1.1 million members.
Ishiba could face challenges from Digital Minister Taro Kono, another moderate politician, and Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old former environment minister and son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
Even more fascinating is the possible inclusion of two women.
Economy Minister Sanae Takaichi is a darling of the party’s right wing and on Thursday demonstrated her conservative stance with a visit to Yasukuni, a shrine honoring Japan’s war dead and seen by some as a symbol of the country’s militaristic past.
Despite his recent difficulties, Kishida could still have a say in the choice of his successor, especially if he supports another possible candidate: Yoko Kamikawa, whom he appointed last year as Japan’s first female foreign minister in nearly two decades.
The next LDP leader “should be able to bring the party together and lead the government,” said Mikitaka Masuyama, a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. “Someone with experience is better than someone who is just popular in voter polls. If Kishida picks Kamikawa and others in the LDP join him, she could be the right one.”
There was at least a small respite for Kishida this week when he invited Japan’s medallists from the Paris Olympics to his official residence and told them they had “infused energy and courage into the entire nation.” But it will be up to his successor to inject the same qualities into his struggling party.
