The Hotline Mailbag is published weekly. Send questions to [email protected] and include “Mailbag” in the subject line. Or contact me at X @WilnerHotline
Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
If there’s smoke, is there usually fire? — BeaverSheets
I assume you are referring to the future conference affiliation of Oregon State and Washington State.
Social media was abuzz with speculation this week that the Big 12 might also extend membership invitations to the Cougars and Beavers at the behest of ESPN.
Our advice: ignore the rumors.
“The Big 12 has no interest in them,” said an industry source familiar with Commissioner Brett Yormark’s strategy.
Another source called the rumors “head-scratching.”
A third said that an additional western expansion of the Big 12 had not been discussed with campus administration in any significant way.
Of course, the schools would include kickoffs in the Pacific Time Zone in the Big 12’s media rights inventory. But don’t you think Yormark and ESPN officials considered this issue last summer when they declined to offer affiliation to the Cougars and Beavers?
In addition, the Big 12 schools would never agree to a smaller distribution of media rights, which means:
• The Cougars and Beavers would be forced to join the conference as half- or quarter-share members, which would put them at a massive competitive disadvantage.
• ESPN and/or Fox would have to cover the cost of the new additions and spend at least $75 million, which they were not forced to spend last summer.
Additionally, the Big 12 is currently focused on integrating the Four Corners schools, not expanding them. Conference and campus officials want to evaluate the structure of the 16 schools before turning their attention to 18 or more schools.
And if the Big12 were to expand, schools in the ACC, starting with Clemson and Florida State – if they are available and interested – would be the top targets.
In other words, adding WSU and OSU doesn’t make sense.
Still, we must add a caveat: If the ACC breaks up sometime in the next 12 to 36 months, the situation could change. It could change for the Big 12, the SEC and the Big Ten, and the entire power conference structure.
But as things stand, the door to the Big 12 is closed for the Cougars and Beavers, with four power conferences still intact.
That is precisely why the two-year grace period is crucial because it gives them time to further develop the landscape.
What kind of media deal would the Pac-12 have gotten if the presidents had the patience to wait until after the 2023 football season? — @draywilson29
The Hotline has addressed this topic in the past, but it’s worth mentioning again as Sunday marks the one-year anniversary of the Pac-12’s collapse.
If the schools had been willing to rely on themselves and postpone negotiations on media rights until winter 2023/24, the conference would probably have remained in place.
The Pac-12’s media value was much higher in December 2023, after a fabulous regular season with elite teams and excellent TV ratings, than it was when then-Commissioner George Kliavkoff presented his contract to the president a month before kickoff.
We suspect that a contract with significant linear loading and an average value of $35 million per school would have been available.
But this scenario could only have played out in an alternate universe, because the presidents were not prepared to wait—they were under enormous pressure to sign a media deal—and also because Kliavkoff was unable to keep the schools together for another six months.
By this time, confidence in his leadership had already disappeared.
It’s a fascinating topic to think about, but ultimately it’s irrelevant.
What do you know about the Pac-12 potentially filing lawsuits against Fox and ESPN? — @jimmy0726
We are not aware of any substantial developments on this front and it would be a huge miscalculation.
For all the frustration in Pullman and Corvallis over the role the networks played in the collapse of the Pac-12 – Fox bears much more responsibility than ESPN, in our view – the Cougars and Beavers must remain in good graces.
Why? Because whether they rebuild the conference or join the Mountain West, WSU and OSU will have to sign a media rights deal sometime in the next 12 to 18 months (starting in fall 2026). And Fox, which has an existing deal with the MW that expires in summer 2026, is more likely than ESPN.
It is better for the Cougars and Beavers to keep their frustration out of the legal system.
There’s been a lot of talk about Washington getting half of the Big Ten’s media revenue. How does that compare to the last Pac-12 deal we turned down? — @RockDawg3
Multiple sources told the hotline last year that Apple’s final offer would have guaranteed each school $25 million, with the possibility of higher amounts if certain subscription levels were reached during the contract term.
(Our understanding: The lowest levels would have been easily reached within a few years.)
As a half-member of the Big Ten, the Huskies will receive an average of about $32.5 million per year over the term of the six-year contract.
Additionally, aside from a handful of games on Peacock, the Big Ten offers a tremendous presence on linear television, whereas the Apple deal would likely have been exclusively about streaming.
The Huskies made their decision based on what was best for the football program in the short term. Was that short-sighted? One could certainly make a case for a partnership with the most influential media company in the world.
But we do not blame the University of Washington for rejecting Kliavkoff’s offer. Nor do we blame any one school for the conference’s demise. The collapse was many years in the making due to a series of strategic miscalculations.
When is the earliest Cal and Stanford can get out of the ACC contract at the lowest price and beg Oregon State and Washington State to let them back into the Pac-12? — @DrDreNoCal
Cal’s accession letter makes it clear that there is no way out for Bay Area schools; they are bound to the ACC through the summer of 2036.
This assumes, of course, that the ACC will exist until the summer of 2036.
If Clemson and Florida State manage to extricate themselves from the grant-of-rights deal, North Carolina will surely follow, and the ACC would be without its three most valuable schools. At that point, the conference could very well disband, and Cal and Stanford would have the option to return to a rebuilt Pac-12.
We should add one important note: The contract with ESPN reportedly includes an opt-out clause for 2027, provided the broadcaster notifies the ACC by February 2025.
We do not expect ESPN to end the partnership unless Florida State and Clemson are successful in their attempt to terminate the rights transfer agreement and leave the conference.
With USC and UCLA leaving and the Hotline article about the huge budget holes at Cal and Stanford, it begs the question how much the two LA universities have ruined the entire conference financially. — JoeInOregon87
My goodness, this is a complicated topic—one that could easily fill a 1,000-word column.
Let’s try to simplify things a bit: If USC and UCLA had stayed in the Pac-12, the resulting media rights deal would likely have paid each of the two universities at least $40 million annually, possibly as much as $45 million.
Which schools can earn so much from the media contracts of their new conferences?
Only USC and UCLA, which should earn $60 to $65 million annually in the Big Ten. (Note: The Bruins must transfer $10 million to Cal for at least the next three years, according to an order from the UC Regents.)
For everyone else, the situation is as follows:
• Oregon and Washington receive an average of about $32.5 million from the Big Ten.
• The Four Corners schools are expected to collect (on average) $31.7 million from the Big 12.
• Cal and Stanford will receive about $10 million annually for the first seven years of their ACC membership.
So yes, the eight schools that left last summer will receive less media rights revenue in their new conferences than they would have if the Pac-12 had remained intact.
Can we go back to the Friday Hotline Mailbag? That sounds just good. — @TerryTerry79
The mailbag has been pushed back a day this week as our series on the Pac-12 schools enters a new era.
The release began with three radical proposals for the Big 12’s schedule and continued with a look at the financial challenges facing Cal and Stanford in the ACC.
Next, we examined the leadership style of Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti and his relationship with the SEC’s Greg Sankey.
Finally, the hotline reported on the latest developments at WSU and OSU.
Next week the mailbag will be sent out again as usual on Friday morning.
